Pattern Muddy March 2021

[GaWx]

What a beautiful day today in the SE with temps of mainly high 40s to mid 60s, sunny skies, breezy N winds, and dewpoints way down in the teens to low 30s! Enjoy!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

that first possible severe threat looks more confined to the gulf coast, given the deep vortex to our NE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Now this is a look that could easily get the Carolinas involved in severe wx

 

[GaWx]

Fwiw since this is nearly 2 weeks out and there has been a cold bias recently, 12Z Euro ens still has a cold period after St Patrick’s Day:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Fwiw since this is nearly 2 weeks out and there has been a cold bias recently, 12Z Euro ens still has a cold period after St Patrick’s Day:

View attachment 78096

I could see that happening especially as the trough associated with severe wx/rain moves over

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting

 

[deltadog03]

I actually think we do get cooler later this month.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

RIP only a brief warm up .. warm weenies rejoice while u still can

 

[LickWx]

View attachment 78098
RIP only a brief warm up .. warm weenies rejoice while u still can

I will rejoice in the fact that the averages are higher and below average is still mild ! So boom .

 

[NCSNOW]

Greensboro doesn’t even average a single daily average of 90 let alone a month though lol. Or 6 months !

H.I. and 86 or 90, whats the difference. Hot is Hot.

 

[GaWx]

Still warm or normal for much of the SE

The map is warmer in the SE largely because 3/14-20 is progged to be a transition period with warmth hanging on early in the SE. Later we'll have to see if the SE ridge ends up holding the cold back from especially the deeper SE. I'm hoping the MJO turns out to be the deciding factor and it won't. So, we'll see. I'm thankful models aren't anywhere near all knowing because otherwise there'd be no reason to have forecasting discussions like this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I will rejoice in the fact that the averages are higher and below average is still mild ! So boom .

Yep, and that’s probably gonna be the last “legit cold” and that’s probably like upper 40s/low 50s and low 30s/mid to upper 20s at the coldest, but it could easily change to warmer, either way a cool shot in late March isn’t bad anymore, and we’re warming up quickly average wise, it’s just climobro !!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is easily the best forecast I’ve seen this year

 

[GaWx]

What a great day! We don't see a RH as low as 18% very often but we have it thanks to the 18 dewpoint, which is even lower than what was progged..so look out below tonight when the winds lighten!

HUNTER AFB SUNNY 62 18 18 N7G21 30.28R


Bonus: Hogtown
GAINESVILLE SUNNY 66 28 24 NE13 30.28F

 

[GaWx]

It doesn't get much better than this here in early March for outdoor activities from my perspective. I love the ~32 degree drop progged from today's highs, thanks to the 18% RH! The high teen dewpoints are about 10 colder than what the GFS progged:


GAZ118-080900-
INLAND CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH
324 PM EST SUN MAR 7 2021

..FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY


TONIGHT
CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY
WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. SCATTERED FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY
SCATTERED FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
IN THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

 

[SD]

Yep, and that’s probably gonna be the last “legit cold” and that’s probably like upper 40s/low 50s and low 30s/mid to upper 20s at the coldest, but it could easily change to warmer, either way a cool shot in late March isn’t bad anymore, and we’re warming up quickly average wise, it’s just climobro !!!

Hold the normal to below stuff through easter weekend then all the spring. By that point it's hard for us to frost/ freeze

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sucks each time we ridge something wants to cutoff and N/S stuff wants to dive SE
Anyways quite a impressive ridge on the v16

 

[SD]

If we go calm tonight we beat last night's temps but I've got a sneaky suspicion the wind stays up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s do this every run the next few days

 

[GaWx]

Let’s do this every run the next few days View attachment 78105View attachment 78106

If it would pretty please the mods, I'd like to request an official toss of the Happy Hour GFS ensemble. It isn't that it has it warm in the SE. I just don't care for the "look".