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Pattern Muddy March 2021

it is small scale, but the new GFS does look less amplified. Which could be the start, Albeit small, nod to the king. Interesting to see the icon still holding ground, will be interesting to see what the new euro shows.

QUOTE="Myfrotho704_, post: 420679, member: 1296"]
CMC with a CAD boundary setup in the mix, Sh*t View attachment 78578View attachment 78579View attachment 78580
Worth noting the ICON looked similar to its run last night and doesn’t show a shortwave in this fashion
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Similar to the colder late portion of the 0Z King vs the prior one due to a better Pacific/W ridge, the 12Z may some in similarly colder vs yesterday's 12Z late in the run per earlier maps. I think the cold bias is likely playing a part as I said to Fro last night and I am very wary of a sudden large change like that. So, this may turn out to be rather entertaining and desirable late in the run for cold lovers like Nick and myself, but that doesn't mean I'm yet buying into it.

Regardless, for warm lovers like fro, it is coming in warmer on the earlier maps.

Bottom line: the models are full of doo doo.
 
There some things that could change here, the biggest 2 being
1. The TPV feels the weakness close to Baffin Bay, phases with it and gets stuck there
2. Early on the pacific energy separates quicker, I don’t particularly buy a TPV diving yet but it’s becoming a bigger possibility
3A29EE55-10A2-45A4-A421-945D6A9986B7.png
 
Lol that’s a tightly wound TPV, even tho we’re nearby highs are in the 60s for much of the SE 6CEAC961-9E32-417F-A65F-96070523D700.png112F9924-121F-41EE-8455-1E077B19096E.png
 
It is overdoing it again as usual. It has Indianapolis near 32 afternoon of 3/18 vs the 40s of Goofy and near 50 of Crazy Uncle. The King is the new Crazy Uncle. Don't fall for what I think is nonsense.
nvle
Yeah it’s very aggressive with it, probably drunk, should be interesting to see what EPS does
 
Awwwww come on! Dulles just hit 80 ! First 80s for a lot of central Virginia . Meanwhile down here no such luck.... we probably will get a late first 80 then this year . All but guaranteed now at this point given long range guidance .
 
Tomorrow was our best shot at 80 but that looks to have been stolen from us now as clouds sneak south. Here’s to that being wrong! We have dried out nicely and dryness breeds dryness ...
 
Awwwww come on! Dulles just hit 80 ! First 80s for a lot of central Virginia . Meanwhile down here no such luck.... we probably will get a late first 80 then this year . All but guaranteed now at this point given long range guidance .
Did you not hit 80 back on 2/28... I think CLT got to 81 that day
 
If you believe in reverse Psychology, the thread name worked out perfectly.
Today will be the 10th straight day here without measurable rainfall after 0.60” fell on 3/1, bringing the YTD total to 9.86”. This is just behind 1/13-1/23 and 11/14-11/24 (11 days). If we stay dry tomorrow and Saturday it’s the longest dry spell that i have since I started recording data on 5/1/20. (Yes, I went the whole summer without going more than 11 days in a row without rain. Longest was 6 from 6/9-6/14)
 
Today will be the 10th straight day here without measurable rainfall after 0.60” fell on 3/1, bringing the YTD total to 9.86”. This is just behind 1/13-1/23 and 11/14-11/24 (11 days). If we stay dry tomorrow and Saturday it’s the longest dry spell that i have since I started recording data on 5/1/20. (Yes, I went the whole summer without going more than 11 days in a row without rain. Longest was 6 from 6/9-6/14)
Isn't March normally a very wet month there ? I know in Atlanta, March is the wettest month of the year.
 
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