Pattern Muddy March 2021

[NickyBGuarantee]

V16 is a absolute roast

Until the end of the run .. yikes brrrr later on in the month ? the cold will never let go

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS says SE torch is even shorter and weaker than the shortened one on the 18Z with only 3/11-early 3/14 torchy and not even that extreme.

 

[BHS1975]

Until the end of the run .. yikes brrrr later on in the month the cold will never let go

Why you in such a hurry to torch? We will get PLENTY of heat well into October.


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[GaWx]

0Z Euro:
1) nothingburger for storm 3/6-7
2) The cold themes continue for 3/5-9 and @dsaur still gets his 3/7-8 freezes though the Euro nay be overdone due to cold bias. The moles will either be digging for warmth or begging Tony to let them inside:

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Why you in such a hurry to torch? We will get PLENTY of heat well into October.


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Trust me I do want cold I was joshin really

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Snow is ova

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Snow is ova View attachment 77625

You’ve never heard of late March have you ?

 

[Webberweather53]

If the 0z parallel GFS comes any further NW it'll start snowing in coastal NC & SC

 

[Webberweather53]

The last 3 0z/12z GEFS runs.

There's a pretty obvious trend here.

I had a feeling the progressive/east camp the CMC is in was gonna end up being wrong.

 

[Webberweather53]

0z EPS is still trying to keep things interesting. At least if the CVA max goes over us, we could squeeze out some isolated, convective rain/snow showers regardless of the coastal low

 

[Webberweather53]

0Z Euro:
1) nothingburger for storm 3/6-7
2) The cold themes continue for 3/5-9 and @dsaur still gets his 3/7-8 freezes though the Euro nay be overdone due to cold bias. The moles will either be digging for warmth or begging Tony to let them inside:

View attachment 77624

I don't think you can always assume a model is overdone w/ "x" in every case because every setup is different. If the current trends continue, these cold Euro runs won't be out to lunch because the pattern will have continued to trend favorably for more cold.

 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS is overall colder than prior run and has a shorter SE torch of 3/11-13 before averaging near normal the rest of the run (through 3/17).

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like @metwannabe and the north of 40 crew might have a mega frost in the morning if the clouds cooperate

Confirmed, currently sitting at 27 may drop another degree before sun up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice to see the GFS/v16/GEFS look warmer this morning and reverse cooler trends

 

[Webberweather53]

Excellent

 

[Webberweather53]

Nice to see the GFS/v16/GEFS look warmer this morning and reverse cooler trends

Meanwhile, the EPS keeps getting colder!

 

[Webberweather53]

Only a trace of precip here this morning. I'll call that a win

 

[jackendrickwx]

Only a trace of precip here this morning. I'll call that a win

Goose egg imby. 36F and crystal clear

 

[SD]

Only a trace of precip here this morning. I'll call that a win

Same here

 

[Metwannabe]

6z GFSv16 took a step in wrong direction for weekend potential, might be time to let this one go.... I'll see what the 12z suite shows today