Pattern Muddy March 2021

[NorthDFWwx]

Slight risk area incoming from the SPC for OK/TX today...

Also a 5% tornado risk area for parts of DFW:

 

[GaWx]

Likely overdone due to cold bias but I like the general idea:

 

[jackendrickwx]

GSP going with high 70s for most of the (non elevation) CWA on Friday, certainly on the higher end of guidance.

 

[GaWx]

GSP going with high 70s for most of the (non elevation) CWA on Friday, certainly on the higher end of guidance.

Going higher than the consensus of model guidance on most non-wedge days in almost all locations is usually going to get the forecaster much closer to what verifies because the cold bias of consensus has been so obvious day after day after day, especially when there is no wedge.
Ignoring the always way too cold CMC ens, the Euro ens has for quite awhile had the worst cold bias.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Holy ----

 

[Webberweather53]

In a dust storm here

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Also a 5% tornado risk area for parts of DFW:

View attachment 79967

View attachment 79966

Welp, the 5% tornado risk area is gone in the latest update, lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

In a dust storm here

Gotta smell the dust, to see the snow

 

[SD]

Tomorrows forecast is kind of tough. Get enough clouds and east flow and we are stuck in the 50s, get the sun out and we are 10-15 degrees warmer

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Tomorrows forecast is kind of tough. Get enough clouds and east flow and we are stuck in the 50s, get the sun out and we are 10-15 degrees warmer

Clouds/East wind ftw, let’s enjoy a cool day before the CAPEril heatwave

 

[GaWx]

I love this map but feel it is likely overdone due to cold bias, especially since the GEFS is warm that day:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that’s awesome. AK vortex starting to show up on the OP euro , I know I say I want a torch but if that digs some way that could really cook us

 

[GaWx]

For early April: me not likey but me hope wrong:

 

[LickWx]

For early April: me not likey but me hope wrong:

View attachment 80003

That map has you bang on average though , so that won’t be too bad at least !

 

[GaWx]

That map has you bang on average though , so that won’t be too bad at least !

Good point and thanks for the encouragement. I was looking more generally for the SE rather than just MBY. Regarding MBY, when cold bias is figured in, I'd have to add some degrees to this, unfortunately thus putting me AN.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[LickWx]

Good point and thanks for the encouragement. I was looking more generally for the SE rather than just MBY. Regarding MBY, when cold bias is figured in, I'd have to add some degrees to this, unfortunately thus putting me AN.

Well bright side , assuming you have had the same pattern as me . March so far is average while the last 3 months have been below average , so we had a good run . If anything should encourage you to get ready for the next below normal run of weather !

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well bright side , assuming you have had the same pattern as me . March so far is average while the last 3 months have been below average , so we had a good run . If anything should encourage you to get ready for the next below normal run of weather !

Might be a few years lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NH ridge lol

 

[LickWx]

NH ridge lol View attachment 80005View attachment 80006

Is that a -NAO ? Bro , I don’t like to see positive heights centered in Greenland !