Pattern Muddy March 2021

[Chazwin]

Congrats on this total surprise as this is the forecast:

NCZ036-210800-
IREDELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF STATESVILLE AND MOORESVILLE
505 PM EDT SAT MAR 20 2021

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.

Radar is suggesting a big bust in parts of NC!

View attachment 79872

Definitely headed for a bust here as we were forecast mid 30s and clear skies. Instead there’s been a steady drizzle for the last couple hours and the temp is holding at 48. GSP has updated the forecast now to a low of 39, but I doubt we go much below 45 now

 

[cd2play]

Definitely headed for a bust here as we were forecast mid 30s and clear skies. Instead there’s been a steady fizzle for the last couple hours and the temp is holding at 48. GSP has updated the forecast now to a low of 39, but I doubt we go much below 45 now

Fixed

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Crazy looking radar. Precip moving in two different directions currently in SC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That spring look at H5, nomore super deep TPVs/Deep northern stream, rising heights over conus as things switch to spring quick, love to see it ? averages quickly rising to 70F!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some left moving, elevated supercells ?!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That spring look at H5, nomore super deep TPVs/Deep northern stream, rising heights over conus as things switch to spring quick, love to see it ? averages quickly rising to 70F! View attachment 79891

You don’t have to fight for warm anymore bro we know it’s gonna be warm -_-

 

[GaWx]

Holy heavy rains, Batman! Way heavier than was modeled:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT.

* AT 828 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL WITH A FEW INCHES OF RAIN HAVING ALREADY FALLEN. MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BLUFFTON, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, WILMINGTON ISLAND, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH,
HUTCHINSON ISLAND, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, COFFEE
BLUFF, MONTGOMERY, THUNDERBOLT, VERNONBURG, ISLE OF HOPE, SANDFLY,
WHITEMARSH ISLAND, SKIDAWAY ISLAND, WHITE BLUFF, SAVANNAH HISTORIC
DISTRICT, PARKERSBURG AND BONA BELLA.

 

[GaWx]

The rain is accompanied by winds and cold:

SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAVANNAH ARPT RAIN 49 46 90 NE16G29 30.20S FOG
HUNTER AAF HVY RAIN 48 45 90 NE13G20 30.16S FOG
FORT STEWART HVY RAIN 47 47 99 N9 30.18R

 

[GaWx]

Not only that but there was pea sized hail of all things earlier in the area:

0703 AM HAIL 1 NE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.94N 81.04W
03/21/2021 E0.25 INCH CHATHAM GA SOCIAL MEDIA

BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF PEA SIZE HAIL.

 

[GaWx]

Due to continuing heavy rains, the flood advisory has been extended still again and now goes through 11AM. MBY has become a lake in the lower parts:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021

GAC051-SCC053-211500-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FA.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210321T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC-
924 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* AT 924 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL, WITH SEVERAL INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BLUFFTON, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, WILMINGTON ISLAND, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH,
HUTCHINSON ISLAND, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, COFFEE
BLUFF, MONTGOMERY, THUNDERBOLT, VERNONBURG, ISLE OF HOPE, SANDFLY,
WHITEMARSH ISLAND, SKIDAWAY ISLAND, WHITE BLUFF, SAVANNAH HISTORIC
DISTRICT, PARKERSBURG AND BONA BELLA.

 

[GaWx]

The GFS suites have all had no more than 0.5-0.75” in the area. Which have done best? Of all things, the 0Z CMC ensemble with the 0Z Euro op second best. Here’s the 0Z CMC ens mean:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hopefully these clouds off in the distance don’t ruin the mid 60s later today

 

[GaWx]

This is what the 6Z Euro had for H5 and surface as of 8AM today and why it is such a significant event (very wet, windy, and cold) in SE GA and S SC: note that it isn’t so much that there is very low pressure but instead there is a very tight gradient from weak low to strong high not too far away along with very moist low level NE flow off the Atlantic and moist WSW to SW H5 flow:

 

[TOR-CON-10]

You don’t have to fight for warm anymore bro we know it’s gonna be warm -_-

Hopefully these clouds off in the distance don’t ruin the mid 60s later today

Good Lord pal. We get it we get it. Do you have to tell everybody every five minutes how much you like hot humid miserable weather. Move to Cuba.

 

[LickWx]

This is what the 6Z Euro had for H5 and surface as of 8AM today and why it is such a significant event (very wet, windy, and cold) in SE GA and S SC: note that it isn’t so much that there is very low pressure but instead there is a very tight gradient from weak low to strong high not too far away:

View attachment 79902

Enjoy lol! You get the cool wet weather I stay mild with mid 60s today. We both win

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You don’t have to fight for warm anymore bro we know it’s gonna be warm -_-

Time period around/before Easter has frost potential Per ensembles/some globals, cold is not done yet

 

[GaWx]

I was just walking in the referenced area along Victory Dr. late yesterday, which was immediately before the rain started (was light rain at first for awhile):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0951 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.08W
03/21/2021 U0.00 INCH CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED REPORT OF SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON VICTORY
DRIVE ACROSS FROM DAFFIN PARK. SPOTTER REPORTED A FEW
CARS WERE STALLED IN THE STANDING WATER.
——————————————

The following is the heaviest report in the SAV area that I’ve seen so far, nearly 5”! (I estimate ~2.5-3” for MBY by the way):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2021

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0947 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE WHITE BLUFF 32.00N 81.11W
03/21/2021 M4.74 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT

 

[Myfrotho704_]

that MJO wave propagation to the maritime continent towards early April is looking legit, GEFS May be to fast but the EPS has a similar progression although it looks a little slower and weaker, if this does occur this might kickstart some legit severe wx in the plains if moisture return is realized and overall have the US in a mild-very mild pattern, however this is very LR

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol oof

 

[Myfrotho704_]