Pattern Muddy March 2021

[SD]

-NAO going to try to ruin things

 

[Webberweather53]

Current view ?

 

[SENC]

Nice view.. cool Feature off the NC/SC Coast this Morning..

Is it "warm core"?? It appears to be right over the Gulf Stream..

 

[Webberweather53]

Nice view.. cool Feature off the NC/SC Coast this Morning..

Is it "warm core"?? It appears to be right over the Gulf Stream..

Looks mostly cold core for now, usually takes several days for tropical transition to occur and for a substantial warm core to build up. Some models show it becoming shallow warm core in the next day or two

 

[LickWx]

Looks mostly cold core for now, usually takes several days for tropical transition to occur and for a substantial warm core to build up. Some models snow it becoming shallow warm core in the next day or two

Snow it ? My goodness modernweenie

 

[FamouslyHot]

Nice view.. cool Feature off the NC/SC Coast this Morning..

Is it "warm core"?? It appears to be right over the Gulf Stream..

Definitely not warm core, although yesterday it began to attempt to transition to subtropical. By today its a bare vortex with no convection and cold air entrained back into the core. SSTs are also simply too cold, maybe around 20 degrees Celsius.

 

[Webberweather53]

Definitely not warm core, although yesterday it began to attempt to transition to subtropical. By today its a bare vortex with no convection and cold air entrained back into the core. SSTs are also simply too cold, maybe around 20 degrees Celsius.View attachment 80043

This looks like the old gfs from 6z yesterday. New GFS is much more enthusiastic about this becoming shallow warm core

 

[FamouslyHot]

This looks like the old gfs from 6z yesterday. New GFS is much more enthusiastic about this becoming shallow warm core

It is from yesterday. I was showing how yesterday it was on the verge of transitioning. I didn't think conditions were expected to get better though and assumed it was all downhill from there.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Heading into mid April like ??

 

[LickWx]

Heading into mid April like ??View attachment 80044

Hour 384! My goodness has it gotten that bad ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Kansas ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Well the new GFS still does this lol. Went from crystal clear for the race on Saturday night to sweating it already

 

[Webberweather53]

It is from yesterday. I was showing how yesterday it was on the verge of transitioning. I didn't think conditions were expected to get better though and assumed it was all downhill from there.

I’m actually saying that the gfs model was upgraded at 12z yesterday, I wouldn’t look at runs from the older version of the gfs.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Hug the CMC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hug the CMC

No. That precip is Convective I need storms, and they move in Sunday morning/afternoon, weenie

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Heading into mid April like ??View attachment 80044

 

[jackendrickwx]

No. That precip is Convective I need storms, and they move in Sunday morning/afternoon

It seems we are at odds.
Here's the "king" euro
click me for euro
(let me know if this works right, should send you to a loop of 18z saturday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It seems we are at odds.
Here's the "king" euro
click me for euro
(let me know if this works right, should send you to a loop of 18z saturday

 

[FamouslyHot]

Let me admit that I was wrong. Looks our little cyclone off the coast did achieve a shallow warm core, but will soon transition back to cold core.

 

[jackendrickwx]

View attachment 80054View attachment 80057View attachment 80055View attachment 80056

That'd be perfect. I get my race on Saturday, we both get our storms on Sunday. (also did that link work right)