Webberweather53
Meteorologist
La Nina forcing in April gives you +PNA/cool eastern US.
Bottomless cold rain ?
Bottomless cold rain ?
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LickWx
Member
It will end eventually ! Going on 4 months of below normal weather if March is below ! Nothing lasts forever .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subseasonal look we're fixing to get into in week 2 & beyond is anti- SE ridge/anti-warmth
Let’s get some Indian Ocean convection into May, let’s May 2019 again ?,hope we get a record breaking summer to pay for this cool crap
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man idk about you guys but I sure do love me some +PNA in late March.
Cold rain city here we come!
Cold rain city here we come!
at least BN days under a sunny cold and dry ULT aren’t so bad anymore around that range, getting to that time of year where you can get upper 50s/low 60s under ULTs, especially with the dry NW flow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When was the last time those plots got something right?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
After these next few days, where tf is the warmth coming from? Asking for a friend...
I would be more upset if I was staring at this in early March wanting warmth but averages are rising quick, I’ll take some 50s and rain, always light at the end of the tunnel, and typically with +PNAs you get some dry days under the trough, I’ll take it honestly (in fact we’re getting to that time of year where you can start getting convection under upper level troughs)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ehh, gonna have to say those plots aren't too shabby... They helped me key in on the potential for cooler weather (anomaly-wise) late in the month a week or so ago, or at least that we weren't gonna have wall-to-wall torch as some hoped for. Looks to be panning out thus far.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
the sun ?
Any sort of hope after this for a flash drought and 80s lol
Thanks, Webb! I never knew that.
So, I decided to check KATL Aprils for lingering La Nina: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1985, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011 and sire enough it supports your finding.
I got the following for these 12:
- 4 solidly BN
- 3 slightly BN
- 1 NN
- 1 slightly AN
- 3 solidly AN
So, some advantage for BN side over AN side (7-4) but the sample size is pretty small. I need to expand back into the 1800s and would use your tables to do so if I do it.
Pain. Oth haha favorable Forcing for TC activity but it’s still to early 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At that point, it's honestly gonna start to depend a little on the Atlantic hurricane season which starts (officially) in May this year
Truly amazing how much the mountains ---- us over, rest of the SE is laughing at us 
@NickyBGuarantee would love this run of the GFS, as it’s a cloudy/rainy wedge mon-wed !!