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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

This definitely has a shot to be a juicier system than some NWP models have been advertising especially closer to the Atlantic Coast in the SE US. Very impressive mid-level southwesterlies right off the Gulf of Mexico into the Carolinas, GA, & VA without much appreciable convection on the Gulf Coast to impede moisture transport.... Woof.
namconus_z700_vort_seus_35.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This definitely has a shot to be a juicier system than some NWP models have been advertising especially closer to the Atlantic Coast in the SE US. Very impressive mid-level southwesterlies right off the Gulf of Mexico into the Carolinas, GA, & VA without much appreciable convection on the Gulf Coast to impede moisture transport.... Woof.
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love the looks of That!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This definitely has a shot to be a juicier system than some NWP models have been advertising especially closer to the Atlantic Coast in the SE US. Very impressive mid-level southwesterlies right off the Gulf of Mexico into the Carolinas, GA, & VA without much appreciable convection on the Gulf Coast to impede moisture transport.... Woof.
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This albeit slightly slower situation, and a bit more digging, can help the SW flow really start to work it's way into and increase precipitation chances the longer it takes, correct?
 
Shawn said:
This albeit slightly slower situation, and a bit more digging, can help the SW flow really start to work it's way into and increase precipitation chances the longer it takes, correct?
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Exactly, this is the key element we've been missing since our early December event but we have it here...
 
Ruh roh; some energy trying to creep into the trough from the West htis run vs 18z. Likely won't amount to much this go; but good to watch.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is trending towards a classic overrunning event for most on the board granted it probably will be more impressive further east
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By 48, there is a piece really breaking off to help us out our way. Again, not something crazy, but any little bit helps here.
 
namconus_ref_frzn_us_40.png
Band hanging longer
 
jaymackd3 said:
And with this forecast there will be no milk or bread to be found. people lose their minds...just got home from Walmart and the bread is already almost gone
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That’s the rpm model. It has been on the drier side with the gfs on this event.
 
Band falls completely apart by hour 54. Lets see if we can get it back. Some in NC left over.
 
There's the dual jet again with the band falling apart and dewpoints still being okay in Georgia/the Carolinas. Granted North Carolina will likely be fine though.

....what?
 
accu35 said:
namconus_asnow_seus_19.png
Much better
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Yep, 1/2 inch for majority of Central Alabama, but with temps in the 22-27 degree range. I’d easily expect accumulations to be closer to 1 inch. QPF was right at .05 for most.
 

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Bahaha that map shane just posted should be katie barred the door precipitation for GA & Carolinas at least.

\
 
Less precip east of the mountains this run. Not sure why it’s not beefing it up with the look aloft.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Why is the moisture transport being cut off before it hits the Atlanta area? I'm looking at RH field maps and 500 mb heights and can't understand it. There's still a decent SW flow at 54.
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We all don't. Everything points to that band shouldn't go bye bye but it does. Dewpoints are ok (unlike earlier this month), there's a dual jet look with a gulf tap, and the SW flow.
 
I guess we are going to get the whole "no forcing" argument here; but that flow and jet streak. nah man.
 
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