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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

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So far
 
Everyone that is in East Georgia, South Carolina, and the Charlotte area better hope the ICON truly is a warm outlier as if not, all you're going to see is rain if you see precip.
 
Kylo said:
Wondering why models are keying in on the 85 corridor. Is this what happened in 1984?
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"...vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost"
To an extent yes. Essentially what's happening here as the trough axis passes over the Appalachians mountains and into the piedmont, the column is stretching because the surface elevation changes from several thousand feet to several hundred feet. According to the quasi-geostrophic omega equation, changes in relative vorticity and temperature advection with height dictate upward motion (increasing cyclonic vorticity advection and warm air advection w/ height favor upward motion & vis versa). Henceforth, the vorticity equation dictates that the time tendency (rate of change) of relative vorticity is the sum of the horizontal vorticity advection, vertical vorticity advection, tilting of vorticity about a horizontal axis, stretching, and differential friction. Here we have a trough base w/ cyclonic vorticity being advected in from the west across the apps, increasing cyclonic vorticity advection with height (this is because the relative vorticity max is located in the mid-levels), and the column is stretching all of which lead to increasing cyclonic relative vorticity which according to the QG omega equation says ascent & thus more precipitation is favored. Areas further east of the west-central piedmont like the Triangle & Fayetteville won't have as much column stretching because the elevation doesn't change as drastically across the NC piedmont, which also means that lift isn't favored quite as much there, thus the axis of heaviest snow is centered closer to the Triad & Charlotte.

(Quasi-geostrophic theory referenced here essentially refers to the deduction of large-scale processes in the atmosphere from only a few variables like geopotential height, geostrophic wind, and relative vorticity, etc. It allows us to simplify these processes while retaining the most important information in the process. Things like friction and ageostrophic flow assumed to be negligible above the boundary layer, and stability is assumed to be uniform and hydrostatic balance (i.e. balance between the vertical gravitational and pressure gradient forces) is maintained).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Everyone that is in East Georgia, South Carolina, and the Charlotte area better hope the ICON truly is a warm outlier as if not, all you're going to see is rain if you see precip.
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It's the timing of day. ICON has it coming into SC dead in the afternoon. However, I have noted that the ICON, much like the EURO has a slight warm bias in the times I have observed it.

Also with that being said, the thermals would support a period of snow with SFC temperatures several degrees ABV FRZ due to the crashing thermal schemes aloft
 
Would make sense that the ICON is keeping us to warm cause the Euro showed something similar temp wise during the 00z run from what I have read on here, they have ties to each other. So... yeh.. Hopefully we aren't just looking at a cold light rain here. But probably..
 
Stormsfury said:
It's the timing of day. ICON has it coming into SC dead in the afternoon. However, I have noted that the ICON, much like the EURO has a slight warm bias in the times I have observed it.

Also with that being said, the thermals would support a period of snow with SFC temperatures several degrees ABV FRZ due to the crashing thermal schemes aloft
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Yeh good point man. Always bad timing here. Just like we never can get a good line of storms through this area because they always roll through MS, AL, and GA during the day and SC at night.
 
I'll need to hug the ICON because the 3k NAM is a complete nothing burger for just east of the apps. Is the ICONs further west solution for that band reasonable? Is it backd up at h5? I know it looked a little sharper and SW but would that alone make it a legit solution?
 
Would love to cash out on the Icon. I'm eager to see how things trend today for MBY. Local mets have upped our snow chances here to 40%.
 
The ICON closed off a 500mb low and keeps it closed longer which allows a SFC low to take shape offshore.

One other thing I noted in NW SC is the famous "warm SFC configuration". Arctic air not getting over the mountains, going around so to speak...and maybe a slight bit of downsloping...which always has a negative impact in these light events
 
Good trends is all we can ask for now. Then just have to see what actually happens.
 
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