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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Storm5 said:
You've been screaming it for days. Mother natures payback is brutal

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Or model output. Maybe the models will be nice to me today and give me MOISTURE. Hear these words models, MOISTURE! LOL. But if you read my post above, as I said, I feel the snow hole could be a lie.
 
metwannabe said:
I guess it's my turn...
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And mine.... again

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metwannabe said:
I guess it's my turn...
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Brick Tamland said:
Would love to be on the high end of that, but 2 inches would be great. RAH and the local TV mets are being conservative as always so they can increase totals as the storm unfolds.
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Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
 
SD said:
And mine.... again

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Apparently you have expanded the snow shield, in all seriousness if that band is that solid and pretty intense back to the Triad I think it holds up to your area still could easily fizzled by the time it reaches me but that's just a odd looking snow gap, to me anyway. I think you'll be fine

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Now. NAM gives Chatham Co. NC 2 inches, and Wake 1. As I said yesterday (Capt. Obvious I know) its nearing the NAM's special time frame.
 
NAM is trying to suck me back in. Not ready to go all in just yet but a better 12z NAM run for the CAE areas for sure.


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That snow hole that ForsythSnow is referencing? That's even worse on the 3km NAM.

(Note, it may still be snowing in NC on the NAM at this period, not sure, just got up lmao)
 

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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Well, I am pretty much right on US1. Maybe it'll get lucky up this way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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I guess it's time for the climatological favored areas of NC to get theirs, if it can hold together long enough to give me a solid inch I'll be happy I did get 4 with the last system so I'm trying not to be greedy.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, I am pretty much right on US1. Maybe it'll get lucky up this way.
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Yeah we just need to hope the precipitation shield still has enough gas when it gets here and we're tucked inside the eastern edge of the good snows that will probably occur to our west so that the relative snow hole is located over the coastal plain instead of the eastern piedmont...
 
12Z ICON running. So far noticeable taller ridge out west compared to NAM and 06Z ICON through 18 hours..Also Further SW with energy.
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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Wondering why models are keying in on the 85 corridor. Is this what happened in 1984?
 
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