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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Much better
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Even better than 6z. Need a couple more good cycles from the NAM before I get excited. Need a little breathing room from what seems like the inevitable last minute bad trend from these meso models IMO
Tarheel1 said:
Temps, temps, temps! If this comes in Tuesday evening or even midnight , I promise you upstate will be at 45+ degrees when rain starts
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looking like 3-6'ish AM? And I agree. Hard to get that cold air over those mountains. By no means am I optimistic about this. But that simulates radar looks beautiful
 
Webberweather53 said:
2-5" seems like the right call in the central-western piedmont of NC atm, barring a nice coastal forms to sling moisture back inland, someone along or east of US highway 1 is going to get appreciably less and/or screwed over.
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Would love to be on the high end of that, but 2 inches would be great. RAH and the local TV mets are being conservative as always so they can increase totals as the storm unfolds.
 
So the nws in Huntsville has different criteria for winter weather watches and warnings than birmingham . That's interesting. I knew they were not universal but I figured those two offices we at least close to the same

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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Anyone think snow totals across middle GA could be higher with the gulf tap?
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Well the December event while different setup somewhat ended up verifying higher moisture when gulf was tapped won't be anything like that cause it was a much more moist system to begin with but one could hope that could end up on the .10 to .20 increase for some in East AL and West GA but won't know for sure until some of the shorter models start getting in range
 
Here’s my NWS forecast:

Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

They did up the percentage from 20 to 30.
 
Something tells me the appearance of the model output may not be the whole story. I went into the soundings on Pivotal and noticed that there is a snow sounding for 12 straight hours here. That is way too long for only 3 or 6 to 0 in the output.
Here's an example of hour 39 on the 12Z sounding vs the 12Z TT map. Pivoral looks drier btw.
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12Z TT Map
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