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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

gawxnative said:
Well looking at RADAR Trends.. Seems to bee filling in much more than many model outputs showed. IMO... Thoughts?
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I'm starting to wonder if we get a lot of the heavy dandruff type snow here. Normally the radar has to be in clear air mode to detect the light nature of the precip as every bit of moisture is squeezed out. Will be hard for the models to figure out and could really create major problems with these temps. Watch for it.
 
This isint going to end well for me. The line that has been just to my west for some 8 hours is about to start weakening.
 
Arcc said:
I'm starting to wonder if we get a lot of the heavy dandruff type snow here. Normally the radar has to be in clear air mode to detect the light nature of the precip as every bit of moisture is squeezed out. Will be hard for the models to figure out and could really create major problems with these temps. Watch for it.
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I am guessing that’s kinda what Bham NWS is thinking too. I was shocked to read the discussion and then ramp things up so much. I hope they are right.
 
HRRRX very similar to the RGEM with redevelopment along I-59 corridor I wonder if this will be convective in nature added by sun I'm leaning to this


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Parker said:
I am guessing that’s kinda what Bham NWS is thinking too. I was shocked to read the discussion and then ramp things up so much. I hope they are right.
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I see the local Fox6 guys lowed their totals for the Bham area to 1/2" or less. Went completely against NWS raising theirs.
 
You know just about every model in Jan 28 2014 had a dusting at best for many that got 1-2 inches of snow. Some of these models are showing in upwards of 1/2 inch with 10:1 ratios, so this very well could do what some are thinking and overperform. I hope that it does.

It was interesting to see 3 members of the latest sref for Bham at 2 inches or more and the mean of .64 was a huge jump from under a 1/4 inch at the last one. This is a tough storm to forecast.
 
This storm is like 80-90 miles wide. Gonna come and go fast. Not much time to waste if it starts as rain. Not getting my hopes up here in Columbia.
 
Latest blog post on ABC 3340 weather blog is in line with NWS. Saying that 1-1.5 likely and that this afternoon we could get some enhanced rates that drop around 4 inches along I-59 and points east.
 
Flo said:
This storm is like 80-90 miles wide. Gonna come and go fast. Not much time to waste if it starts as rain. Not getting my hopes up here in Columbia.
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True but with the least guidances there is a small reason to be cautiously optimistic...


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Looking at the 03 SREF.. and going by the MBP2 (which generally is showing the highest amount of accumulation in the state of Alabama or at least near the top), you get these totals. Obviously just 1 member, but maybe if this storm over performs, it gives an idea at the possibilities. Blast away..

Florence/Muscle Shoals: 1.56"
North Huntsville (MDQ): 2.5"
Huntsville: 2.26"
Cullman: 2.05"
Ft Payne: 3.42"
Gadsden: 3.29"
Anniston: 3.33"
Birmingham: 2.47"
Tuscaloosa: 2.74"
Calera: 3.66"
Montgomery: 0.76"
Auburn: 1.83"
 
Ryan Sanders said:
Looking at the 03 SREF.. and going by the MBP2 (which generally is showing the highest amount of accumulation in the state of Alabama or at least near the top), you get these totals. Obviously just 1 member, but maybe if this storm over performs, it gives an idea at the possibilities. Blast away..

Florence/Muscle Shoals: 1.56"
North Huntsville (MDQ): 2.5"
Huntsville: 2.26"
Cullman: 2.05"
Ft Payne: 3.42"
Gadsden: 3.29"
Anniston: 3.33"
Birmingham: 2.47"
Tuscaloosa: 2.74"
Calera: 3.66"
Montgomery: 0.76"
Auburn: 1.83"
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Best outcome for us but unlikely at this time
 
Yeah obviously most of the SREF completely disagrees, but if the system spits out more than expected, will be nice to go back and see how these numbers verify.
 
Smoke show weather babe Jennifer Valdez made no mention of the WWA on CBS 46. Showed the RPM. Just goes to show that no one has any idea on what’s going to happen with regard to how much redevelops, if any. She loves to say “flurries”.


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Central NC looking great. That 3 to 4 inches call might be low depending on the rates.
 
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