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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

It is rocking here at the moment . Heavy snow and 17 degrees. Closing in on 3 inches. MEG has upped the totals for most. especially the I40 corridor and North Ms. No model had me over an inch for the past week until today. Good luck to everyone.
 
Incoming NAM might not look so good with the secondary band development. SREF is less around my area, while dropping chances from close to 40% sn, to 30%.
 
latest MRX aviation forecast:

"MVFR to IFR conditions
to be common and lower conditions cannot be ruled out."

Careful out there later today pilots, both physical and psychic....
 
namconus_asnow_seus_10.png
Much better Nam 6z
 
Ah, NAM starts showing a UKMET type of solution. Rates would be strong enough, in this situation, with a jetstreak helping a lot of areas out:

ok2.png ok3.png ok.png
 
6z HRRR. I don't like the way it kills the banding back in AL, quickly.

HRRR18.png
 
This is the ARW model from 00z. Posting here to be able to look back at later, since it's on the extreme side of guidance in SC.

ARW.png
 
Looking at the NAM and soundings for this area; there is moisture in the dgz area and temps are just fine.

wow.

guessing nws cae may be forced to start issuing advisories if 12z holds on. ukmet, euro, gefs, rgem, canadian, nam. the idea is there, if heavier banding occurs to give > 1" in some areas around here.
 
Looking at the early panels of the 06z RGEM, it is trying to snowhole Georgia (NE) again.
 
Okay, 06z RGEM fills back in and ends up being pretty good in GA and heavier into SC/NC.

Have bad maps currently. Worthless to post.
 
Wow, even more in at least the carolinas.

apologies in advance everyone back in al, tn, ga. im not trying to ignore your areas, but its hard to keep up with the whole area, and you guys know those areas better than I do. here is the 06z RGEM:

wow.png
 
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