Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[Round Oak Weather]

I don't understand how they can change so quickly from looking good to like crap

Nevermind I didn't wait for the gulf tap

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Hearing the RGEM is still a lot juicier than the NAM

No it's drier to

 

[Parker]

Anybody have RGEM precip totals for Alabama?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Lol that band is actually reforming better on the ICON but of course since it's warm, it's rain so far. Might be a few degrees off as like I said it initialized wildly off on at least my temp.

 

[olhausen]

I just got upgraded to a winter storm warning!

 

[accu35]

Ill be radar watching for now on. All the models are so off for places north of here.

 

[Arcc]

Anybody have RGEM precip totals for Alabama?

Lower through 30hrs.

 

[Storm5]

No it's drier to

And we lost the rgem.....

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[Xtreme Weather]

 

[Xtreme Weather]

And we lost the rgem.....

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It's not a total loss but took about oh 1/2" on average away from 18z

Better for areas to our E though

 

[SD]

Icon looks good for the triangle north and west. Mainly rain for Rain Cold and I

 

[Arcc]

Higher totals will be more east.

 

[Webberweather53]

Based on the early returns, it appears the RGEM is the one to ride with this one. And if it does end up coming in much later than the NAM, yes even RDU does stand a chance of mixing with rain briefly, but I think the potential uptick in QPF may far offset any loss there.

Yep I agree with that, short term loss for long-term gain... The 0.6" QPF max just NW of RDU on this RGEM run is hawt.

 

[Brett]

Might as well nowcast if models are not showing the right stuff

 

[$alt]

While modeling QPF may be increasing for CAE, the temperatures suck. Sorry guys. RGEM is basically a big fat 0, maybe some wraparound flurries.

 

[RollTide18]

What's cause the models to dry up now? This is really bad.

 

[TheBatman]

I don’t know why everyone is panicing. You can oblivious see the snow if overarchving back west. This should continue as the moves east. Early today people throught Memphis was going to just get a inch of snow. The models just isn’t realizing the moisture with this system.

 

[Weatherlover92]

This is a couple hours old, this is where the arctic front was at 00z tonight along with the powerful 1052mb HP situated at the Montana/North Dakota border.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php

 

[Webberweather53]

Damn the RGEM is wet af near RDU...

 

[Ryan Sanders]

Sometimes we act so surprised that we get 3-6” totals when models only called for 2-3”. But how many times during rainfall events do models show a higher QPF and we end up with lower, or lower QPF but we end up with much more? It happens a lot but nobody cares cause it’s just rain.

These models aren’t any better at predicting precip values in the winter than they are in any other time of the year.

That’s my thought for the night. Just gonna let mother nature do her job.