Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[Webberweather53]

High res guidance busted horribly even last night w/ the snow that's currently falling over southwestern KY & portions of TN. NWS currently expecting 3-7" and even if you account for higher SLRs, they're going to experience nearly double what was forecast by any high res model. Epic fail.

 

[TheBatman]

Also here is Memphis updated forecast from the weather service.

Tonight
Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

[SD]

Glad to hear that. Maybe a wonky run. It seems so far off from the others lately.

It wasn't bad for us

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[ForsythSnow]

Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Good signs with this. Liking where we could be headed.

 

[deltadog03]

Well, this run of the NAM just purplexed me. Develops a SFC reflection and low basically offshore NC/VA and by hr48, a clear cut SFC low up offshore of New England ... that didn't quite make much sense ...

Ya don't get. Mega jet streak and nada really. Hmm ok

 

[Brick Tamland]

It wasn't bad for us

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Actually looks a little more for us.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Actually looks a little more for us.

Yeah In fact this is a trend to the models that have had the jackpot further east

 

[SD]

Ya don't get. Mega jet streak and nada really. Hmm ok

Kinda surprised there wasn't more down your way. This dry layer isn't terrible

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Kinda surprised there wasn't more down your way. This dry layer isn't terrible

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It's not great but it's certainly workable.

 

[MichaelJ]

We really shouldn't be too shocked if this happens, models have been drying out as we get closer in most events this year east of the mountains

 

[SD]

Actually looks a little more for us.

Soundings are good. Saturated with some decent omega in the dgz. I'll take it.

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[Webberweather53]

High res guidance busted horribly even last night w/ the snow that's currently falling over southwestern KY & portions of TN. NWS currently expecting 3-7" and even if you account for higher SLRs, they're going to experience nearly double what was forecast by any high res model. Epic fail.

View attachment 3046

View attachment 3044


View attachment 3047

Surprisingly the SREF plumes from last night were closest ~3" but even those were too low...

 

[deltadog03]

Kinda surprised there wasn't more down your way. This dry layer isn't terrible

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I agree and there is 6 hours where the column is fully saturated

 

[Stormlover]

It wasn't bad for us

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odd, I got higher totals in north ala from the same thing

 

[olhausen]

Updated forecast map from Firsthand Weather:

3-5 for my area according to this map. Looking at the radar I don’t see how I only end up with 2 inches. I thought I heard the weather channel guy say Paducah Kentucky got 6 inches of snow so far. Is this true?

 

[NorthBamaWeather]

odd, I got higher totals in north ala from the same thing
View attachment 3048

Difference in 3km and 12km

 

[Kylo]

Actually looks a little more for us.

2” to 4” across the triangle and all snow. Really good.

 

[SD]

odd, I got higher totals in north ala from the same thing
View attachment 3048

3k nam vs 12k

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[Xtreme Weather]

what gives no precip at this time DGZ freaking loaded

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 3049

Fuk what gives no precip at this time DGZ freaking loaded

Maybe feedback issues again. ???