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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Those wanting these trends to continue have to remember there is better forcing off to our NW currently . The forcing isn't gonna translate to the SE, no to the same extent
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Storm5 said:
Those wanting these trends to continue have to remember there is better forcing off to our NW currently . The forcing isn't gonna translate to the SE, no to the same extent
9aa435a4445ca65b7bb65b10be92e558.jpg


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18z 3km NAM had maybe half of what the NWS Memphis is forecasting. This is clearly overperforming thus far...
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deltadog03 said:
Ya don't get. Mega jet streak and nada really. Hmm ok
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That mega streak was there in the Dec. 8th storm and believe it had a lot to do with the increased totals, and I think models ended up having some wonkyness too but not this close to event
 
1300m said:
This is a known issue (at least to me) with the NAM. A similar major initialization error occurred back in April 2017 (much worse than this) caused the NAM to really over predict instability and falsely predict a severe weather episode in NC. Literally no one (NWS, SPC or local broadcast mets) connected the dots that the NAM was completely missing this huge line of convection stretching from the Gulf to NC which completely used up all instability and killed any severe weather chances. The NAM must be used with extreme caution and based on what we are seeing tonight I don't think it can be trusted at all with this event, at least not until it starts initializing more correctly.
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I completely agree, we can only hope this initialization error is corrected downstream or else NWS RAH will be scrambling to increase totals like our neighbors to the west and northwest. Overrunning events like this usually over perform anyway but even still I think it's pretty remarkable that virtually no other models other than the often overzealous SREF have performed okay-ish thus far. Sometimes blind squirrels find a nut
 
Looking at current radars vs models and keeping in mind that overrunning type precip often starts several hours earlier than models show, does anyone think that the snow could start early enough in ATL to cause a problem if schools are let out at normal time tomorrow? In other words, is this a potential surprise afternoon snowjam? Is there any reason to keep kids at home tomorrow just in case? TIA
 
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