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Pattern Microwave March

I doubt that a worse version of 2007 happens. No scientific prediction, but just a gut feeling. Just because winter might end up having two months of +10 or higher from norm, doesn't mean that what is causing it is going to roll on into the summer.

It basically didn't rain in October here at all outside of Matthew and I don't really think it was that warm despite no rain. May have been warmer than average but not extreme.

Edit: Yep. It was +4.
 
Why is it that in winter we can get months that are +10 or more above normal but we never have those kind of anomalies in the summer ?
 
Why is it that in winter we can get months that are +10 or more above normal but we never have those kind of anomalies in the summer ?
Not sure I understand, so pardon the basic inquiry - Do you want 10+ anomalies in the summer, or is yours rhetorical (probably so)? I could cook dinner on the back patio floor with temps like that, from June until football season ... LOL
 
I've always felt humidity holds temps from really going crazy in the summer. It makes it miserable but keeps it from really skyrocketing. Unlike the west, unless its just dry it's going to top out in the low-mid 100s.
 
Why is it that in winter we can get months that are +10 or more above normal but we never have those kind of anomalies in the summer ?

Wintertime temperatures in the SE US are largely coupled to baroclinic zones and their associated airmass exchange and advection between the mid and high latitudes, while the airmass over the SE US in the summer is typically humid-tropical, quasi-barotropic (i.e. only dependent on pressure variations), and characterized by an absence of fronts, hence temperature anomalies are primarily dictated by precipitation and concomitant evapotranspiration from the ground, vegetation, etc. Also consider the Clasius-Clapyeron equation, wherein saturation vapor pressure (saturation vapor pressure is essentially equivalent to saying when the air reaches 100% relative humidity (RH) for a given temperature) is a function of temperature alone. Note that saturation vapor pressure (usually expressed as Es) increases exponentially wrt temperature and that water has a specific heat capacity that is ~4-4.5x that of the air. Therefore, it takes significantly more energy to change the temperature of an airmass with the same relative humidity in the summer as it does in the winter. Hence, we can conclude the combination of a dearth of fronts and warmer temperatures promulgating higher ambient vapor pressures contribute to the relative lower variance of summer vs winter temperatures in the southeastern US.

Here's a graph I plotted using the C-C equation w/ saturation vapor pressure over ice and water to show you the non-linear relationship between the moisture capacity of an airmass (saturation vapor pressure) and temperature
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Wintertime temperatures in the SE US are largely coupled to baroclinic zones and their associated airmass exchange and advection between the mid and high latitudes, while the airmass over the SE US in the summer is typically humid-tropical, quasi-barotropic (i.e. only dependent on pressure variations), and characterized by an absence of fronts, hence temperature anomalies are primarily dictated by precipitation and concomitant evapotranspiration from the ground, vegetation, etc. Also consider the Clasius-Clapyeron equation, wherein saturation vapor pressure (saturation vapor pressure is essentially equivalent to saying when the air reaches 100% relative humidity (RH) for a given temperature) is a function of temperature alone. Note that saturation vapor pressure (usually expressed as Es) increases exponentially wrt temperature and that water has a specific heat capacity that is ~4-4.5x that of the air. Therefore, it takes significantly more energy to change the temperature of an airmass with the same relative humidity in the summer as it does in the winter. Hence, we can conclude the combination of a dearth of fronts and warmer temperatures promulgating higher ambient vapor pressures contribute to the relative lower variance of summer vs winter temperatures in the southeastern US.

Here's a graph I plotted using the C-C equation w/ saturation vapor pressure over ice and water to show you the non-linear relationship between the moisture capacity of an airmass (saturation vapor pressure) and temperature
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Great explanation, Webb! And from a lonely outpost known as Gainesville, FL, I will personally attest to and vouch for the bolded!
Thanks! Phil
 
Definitely quite pleased w/ how my winter forecast has panned out thus far, granted I was not warm enough overall in much of the US in Feb (esp the central Rockies), and there are certainly a lot of things I can work and improve upon for next year. It should be interesting to see how my March forecast holds up but it's not looking too shabby either through the first half of the month... March doesn't look to be quite as warm relative to averages as February, but that's not saying much, lol.

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Observed US temperatures + 0-7 day GEFS temperature forecast
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Definitely quite pleased w/ how my winter forecast has panned out thus far, granted I was not warm enough overall in much of the US in Feb (esp the central Rockies), and there are certainly a lot of things I can work and improve upon for next year. It should be interesting to see how my March forecast holds up but it's not looking too shabby either through the first half of the month... March doesn't look to be quite as warm relative to averages as February, but that's not saying much, lol.

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Observed US temperatures + 0-7 day GEFS temperature forecast
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You beat JB, LC, DT and a host of others .... Kudos!

Now - please find some way to make next winter resemble the season! ;)
 
Didn't do as well as webber went below normal for December but went above for Jan and much above for Feb. Looks like webber will win the battle of March I went below again

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I cooked the winter as AN Nov until Jan then had the stupidity to say the bottom would fall out on or about 2/6 ... checked out of that Holiday Inn Express too soon ... SMH & LOL
 
and if there is a lesson to learn - listen to Webb .... no one is ever 100% but damn does he fit the pieces together ....
 
Didn't do as well as webber went below normal for December but went above for Jan and much above for Feb. Looks like webber will win the battle of March I went below again

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Same here but I can't remember what I said for March...


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and if there is a lesson to learn - listen to Webb .... no one is ever 100% but damn does he fit the pieces together ....
He may only be a "meteorology student" but I swear he's 10 times smarter than any pro met out there.
 
You beat JB, LC, DT and a host of others .... Kudos!

Now - please find some way to make next winter resemble the season! ;)
How'd the wooly worm forecast do?
 
The Euro control really wants to suck me in for something around 3/10.....I wont allow it!
For us to have winter weather in March, there will have to be a strong push of below normal air. I am not getting too interested until we get closer to time. I feel like we have passed our window for any substantial winter event. Of course, things can happen.
 
Portions of the SE will see a freeze that could kill the early gardening season between late March into the first week of April. Regardless of what the weather is like now.

Sucks, and really puts a wrench into my garden planning. But I always bet on one from history.
 
What's crazy is that Dallas has not seen a freeze since January 8th. Could their last freeze really be January 8th ?!?!?
 
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Thanks for posting this. Eyeballing this tells me there's very little correlation of QBO amplitude/sign, alone, and ATL wintertime temperatures. The warmer than normal and colder than normal look pretty balanced in number no matter what is the QBO. Are you seeing the same thing? This is pretty much the reason I've never used the QBO to predict the winter though I had never seen it analyzed to the extent you did.
 
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Here comes my boo for 3/10
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That looks more like Madea's boo!
Don't focus on temps right now, we got plenty of time to trend colder, or it can make its own cold air! :)
 
Thanks for posting this. Eyeballing this tells me there's very little correlation of QBO amplitude/sign, alone, and ATL wintertime temperatures. The warmer than normal and colder than normal look pretty balanced in number no matter what is the QBO. Are you seeing the same thing? This is pretty much the reason I've never used the QBO to predict the winter though I had never seen it analyzed to the extent you did.

Yep. There's also very little correlation between PDO and Niño 3.4. The R^2 of each with atl winter temps is like -0.17 and -0.09 respectively.


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Great job Webber for sure. I thought we would end up above normal but not this much. Lol hope we can get more rain soon though. Next year I'm going blowtorch all winter and see how that works. Lol

Yes, great job Webber, indeed!

I predict most will go cold next winter for the E US as is often the case. JB has all but already told us this with his Modoki Nino and quieting sun comments, which in his case is no surprise. He has been horrible the last 2 winters. He will need actual cold winters to do well in almost all cases. With the sun continuing to get quieter through at east 2019-20, it is quite likely that jB will go cold much of the E US for the next 3+ winters.
 
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I would hope for a return to a normal winter next winter temperature wise. The occasional 60 and 70 degree days happen every winter but multiple weeks of 70 degree temps is just not right.
 
The 12Z GFS has warmth ending 3/1. Some warm winter analogs favor a cold March. But the GFS has been horribly cold biased. A forecasting dilemna to say the least! For entertainment and record: It has a major deep SE snowstorm 3/8-9. Don't laugh as I'm just a messenger lol though history says that happens every so often.
 
Well, I found something interesting on the GFS. Too bad it's in an area in which I wouldn't trust it at all (past 300).
 
The 12Z GFS has warmth ending 3/1. Some warm winter analogs favor a cold March. But the GFS has been horribly cold biased. A forecasting dilemna to say the least! For entertainment and record: It has a major deep SE snowstorm 3/8-9. Don't laugh as I'm just a messenger lol though history says that happens every so often.
I saw this too, that's SD's boo right there! Seriously though this could be something too watch.... GFS certainly had the cold and a great storm track but alas it's out there in voodoo land
 
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