I would get banned from my own site if that happened. I do think this SER pattern is shortlived
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Pattern Microwave March
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree, this torching can't last forever, it isn't reasonable for it to persist for the next 5 months without a lengthy interruption. There is always the possibility we get a cooler pattern this summer with the possible El Nino, but there is also the potential we don't know what we are getting since it's the southeast and weather is always strange.
pcbjr
Member
More seasonal than weather related -
The sandhill cranes are mostly gone north over the past 3 days; yesterday, not a robin in sight; this morning the robins are arriving in droves.
Spring seems to have sprung in north FL.
Have a great day!
The sandhill cranes are mostly gone north over the past 3 days; yesterday, not a robin in sight; this morning the robins are arriving in droves.
Spring seems to have sprung in north FL.
Have a great day!
I've been doing some research on solar minimum and it does have correlation with regional weather patterns. During the 1995-96 there was solar minimum and that winter was cold. In fact, Jan. 29th-Feb 6th of 1996, there was an arctic outbreak, 11-17c below normal for the northern states and the Plains and more than 6c below normal for the rest of the US during that time. One prominent aspect during that winter was a recurring pattern of enhanced NW wind flow. Also note, there was a blizzard in 1996 over the Mid-Atlantic states. Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast. I have attatched a chart of the solar cycle variations. This is interesting stuff, this shows that when there will be another solar minimum, during the winter it would be colder with above avg. snowfall. Larry can add more information on the 1995-96 if he'd like to.
Edit: based from this pattern from 1975-2005 (30 years) this could mean that 17-18 and part of 18-19 winter could be colder than normal if the sun is at a solar minimum. I do believe that there was a solor minimum from 2010-11, a peak of solar activity during 12-13 and then there was solar min. during 13-14 winter.
Edit: based from this pattern from 1975-2005 (30 years) this could mean that 17-18 and part of 18-19 winter could be colder than normal if the sun is at a solar minimum. I do believe that there was a solor minimum from 2010-11, a peak of solar activity during 12-13 and then there was solar min. during 13-14 winter.
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RollTide18
Member
5 year anniversary of that horrible Tornado Outbreak on March 2, 2012 coming up. Second deadliest March tornado outbreak with 41, 22 coming from Kentucky.
It was a huge storm too, you had tornado warnings stretching from Ohio all the way to south Alabama.
It was a huge storm too, you had tornado warnings stretching from Ohio all the way to south Alabama.
pcbjr
Member
... and rolling right along into the 7th circle of Dante's Inferno -
I have a feeling this is actually coming
... and rolling right along into the 7th circle of Dante's Inferno -
This is a good example to show that even a solid -EPO is normally going to lose out to a solid -PNA as far as a cold SE is concerned. It is typically very difficult to get sustained SE cold with a strong -PNA regardless of the existence of a solid -EPO. However, a -PNA along with a -EPO is often quite cold in the NW US as is in the forecast.
That said, I've noticed that recent model consensus isn't as amplified with the -PNA and thus isn't quite as cold in the NW US while also not quite as warm in the SE. Let's see whether or not this becomes a sustained trend. If so, we'd have a better chance to at least buck the prior trend and perhaps thankfully get back to closer to normal, if not eventually colder than normal as we get into March.
pcbjr
Member
You are clairvoyant!
(and you decipher me well!)
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pcbjr
Member
JB is going all in (FWIW)
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Just wonderful. Would be wonderful to have plants in full bloom and then a freeze.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Natures pruners!
Jon
Member
GEFS & EPS both look like they're getting in range for the pattern change at the end of the first week of March. Cooler temps are coming but I'm reluctant to believe anything more than a cold shot, or shots, followed by warmth. The ridge axis is a little too far west for me, we'll have a SER threatening a return as long as the ridge is off the west coast. Wall to wall cold for the entire US for the entire month per JB is extremely unlikely to me...
I wouldn't be surprised by that cold blast at all. It can happen, frosts can occur typically late as early April here in ATL. Some frosts can occur even as late April. I do believe that, as this summer goes along, it will start to become cooler than normal becuase the sun will start to have less solar activity. By '17-'18 winter, the sun will reach it's peak of solar minimum.
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Don,
Actually, though the sun will continue to get quieter during the winter of 2017-8, the next solar minimum (which should be a doozy) isn't expected until around the winter of 2019-2020 at the earliest. The prior minimum was around the winter of 2008-9.
pcbjr
Member
everything is working too weird this year ...
JB is going all in (FWIW)
March of 1954 saw quite a cold rain for March in Gainesville with a high of only 47 and a low of 34 on 3/7! Also, they had quite a chilly St Patty's with a high of only 59 and a low of 36!
SAV had a trace of wintry precip on 3/6 and a freeze on St Patty's!
Don't count your winter chicks until the March lion has had its say!
pcbjr
Member
That's what I meant, the solar minimum will be at it's minimum during the '17-'18 winter. The last lowest solar minimum was during the '13-'14 winter. The solar minimums occur every 5 years based from a 30 year chart. The last solar min before '13-'14 winter was during '09-'10 winter. That's when every state had snow on the ground except for HI in Feb. in 2010. Larry, did you see my post about '95-'96 winter? The solar minimum was at it's minimum during those years.
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During the 1984-1985 winter, the solar minimum was at it's minimum. Larry would have to help me on the research for those winters. Based from the chart I'm looking at, '84-'85 winter had to be a cold winter. The sun didn't start to have less activity until spring into summer of '84.JB is going all in (FWIW)
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I've been doing some research on solar minimum and it does have correlation with regional weather patterns. During the 1995-96 there was solar minimum and that winter was cold. In fact, Jan. 29th-Feb 6th of 1996, there was an arctic outbreak, 11-17c below normal for the northern states and the Plains and more than 6c below normal for the rest of the US during that time. One prominent aspect during that winter was a recurring pattern of enhanced NW wind flow. Also note, there was a blizzard in 1996 over the Mid-Atlantic states. Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast. I have attatched a chart of the solar cycle variations. This is interesting stuff, this shows that when there will be another solar minimum, during the winter it would be colder with above avg. snowfall. Larry can add more information on the 1995-96 if he'd like to.
Edit: based from this pattern from 1975-2005 (30 years) this could mean that 17-18 and part of 18-19 winter could be colder than normal if the sun is at a solar minimum. I do believe that there was a solor minimum from 2010-11, a peak of solar activity during 12-13 and then there was solar min. during 13-14 winter.
Yes, the chilly SE winters of 1995-6 and 2009-10 were near solar minima although there's no proof of how much the solar min contributed. There's a lot of uncertainty in that regard. 2009-10 being a moderate Nino along with historic levels of high latitude blocking did the trick then. Did being near the solar min have impact, especially on the blocking? Quite possibly IMO.
Solar cycles last about 11-12 years on average rather than every 5 years. 2013-14 was not near a min although this cycle has been quite weak.
pcbjr
Member
Yeah, 1984-5 was just before a solar min. Dec of 1984 was very warm while Jan of 1985 was very cold. The winter averaged out near normal.
It's still intresting on how the solar min pattern is, and while the sun has less activity, it seems like the winters are colder. I agree, I do believe that the sun activity does have to do with the weather patterns here on Earth.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Storm5
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No, solar minimums occur on average every 10-12+ years, the Hale (Solar) cycle is just over 11 years long, intriguingly (& not surprisingly), very similar to Jupiter's orbital period around the sun of ~ 12 years... While we currently aren't embedded in a solar minimum, the integrated solar activity over the last decade or so is among the lowest observed in the last few centuries... A solar minimum alone doesn't equate to a cooler winter here, intrinsic inter annual coupled ocean-atmosphere variability modifies, often completely masks the direct impact of solar variability on the troposphere. In fact, when coupled w/ a westerly QBO &/or NINA during solar minimum, this actually favors less high-latitude blocking and hence warmer winters in the eastern and central US, while easterly QBO/NINO events during solar minimum are notorious for exceptional & persistent high-latitude blocking because they increase the efficiency of momentum deposition via upwelling of extratropical rossby waves onto the polar vortex by modifying the stratospheric waveguide and their placement, amplitude, and frequency. Superposition onto the standing planetary waves (which are largely a function of adjacent topography, with troughs (ridges) downstream (upstream) of major mountain ranges such as the Himalayas, and Rockies) is ideal for disrupting the polar vortex, increasing the probability of sudden stratospheric warming events, and allowing for anomalous concomitant stratospheric circulation anomalies to effectively downwell into the troposphere and directly impact our weather in the US. On the other hand, even in the midst of favorable low frequency/long-term background forcing from solar activity, QBO, and ENSO, (ideally solar minimum + easterly QBO + El Nino), seemingly stochastic (random) solar proton events even in a solar minimum, are notorious for completely eradicating high-latitude blocking regimes, virtually in the blink of an eye. In addition it's worth mentioning here that one of the primary (known) conduits through which solar activity can modulate stratospheric and tropospheric variability via in increases in ultraviolet radiation (UV) during periods of high solar activity. Ultraviolet radiation varies ~6-10% or so over the course of solar cycle, which dwarfs solar irradiance that may only change a few tenths of 1% over a period of a decade or so. The higher amount of ultraviolet radiation during solar maximum leads to the production of more ozone in the upper tropical stratosphere. The process of the photodissociation (or the splitting of a compound by light energy) of ozone releases heat into the surrounding atmosphere, thus the increased levels of ozone means the temperature upper atmosphere increases during solar maximum. This results in an intensification of the stratospheric easterlies that can have appreciable impacts on the near surface climate, and vis versa during solar minimum.
See the following for a bit more information on solar proton events, energetic particle forcing, and solar irradiance's impact on the Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation and near-surface climate.
http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009RG000282/full
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00843.1
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4547/2011/acp-11-4547-2011.pdf
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So does this mean a solar max would actually have a better chance at having a weaker PV?
I messed up, I meant to put solar variations last at the minimum of at least 5 years. The variations start to peak again starting on the 5th year or so. While maximum solar variations last 10-12+ years like you are saying Webber. I'm going to have a video soon of what I learned from my research.
Both 2009-10 and 1976-7 winters were near solar minima and were during weak to moderate El Nino's with historic levels of high latitude blocking and were very cold in the SE. Was the QBO easterly during both of these winters?
pcbjr
Member
No, and, yes sir.
It's gonna be cold. It's gonna be warm. There is a closed ULL coming across FL. There is a solar min in 5 years. There is one every 11. NAO is positive but cold. PNA is positive, but warm. No need to recite everything ... just confused ...
... and not ashamed to admit it
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The solar vararations at it's max can last 10+ years, while the vararations at the lowest last up to 5 years, as each year goes by in those 5 years, the variations start to climb. Also, the teleconnections aren't always the driver of weather patterns, the solar activity has an effect of weather patterns. Another reason why it wasn't that cold this winter is because there wasn't any snow pack, thus allowing the temps to moderate a lot quicker.No, and, yes sir.
It's gonna be cold. It's gonna be warm. There is a closed ULL coming across FL. There is a solar min in 5 years. There is one every 11. NAO is positive but cold. PNA is positive, but warm. No need to recite everything ... just confused ...
... and not ashamed to admit it
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pcbjr
Member
my son used to tell me when i'd help him with his math homework - "dad, i'm confusicated".
i'm confusicated .....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, in fact, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1986-87, and 2009-10 were all solar min/east QBO/El Nino winters, they were all big winters in the eastern and southeastern US. A deeper solar min as we observed in 2009-10 (& what is likely on the way) would only further increase the odds of persistent and very robust high-latitude blocking and cold/snow in the southeastern & eastern US if we had a NINO/East QBO background. We definitely still have a legitimate chance to achieve this configuration as early as next year if an El Nino and easterly QBO develop...
pcbjr
Member
Webb - Unfortunately I can only "Like" this once - but here's 4X - great observation/post!
Phil
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