I would get banned from my own site if that happened. I do think this SER pattern is shortlived
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Pattern Microwave March
- Thread starter SD
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree, this torching can't last forever, it isn't reasonable for it to persist for the next 5 months without a lengthy interruption. There is always the possibility we get a cooler pattern this summer with the possible El Nino, but there is also the potential we don't know what we are getting since it's the southeast and weather is always strange.
pcbjr
Member
More seasonal than weather related -
The sandhill cranes are mostly gone north over the past 3 days; yesterday, not a robin in sight; this morning the robins are arriving in droves.
Spring seems to have sprung in north FL.
Have a great day!
The sandhill cranes are mostly gone north over the past 3 days; yesterday, not a robin in sight; this morning the robins are arriving in droves.
Spring seems to have sprung in north FL.
Have a great day!
I've been doing some research on solar minimum and it does have correlation with regional weather patterns. During the 1995-96 there was solar minimum and that winter was cold. In fact, Jan. 29th-Feb 6th of 1996, there was an arctic outbreak, 11-17c below normal for the northern states and the Plains and more than 6c below normal for the rest of the US during that time. One prominent aspect during that winter was a recurring pattern of enhanced NW wind flow. Also note, there was a blizzard in 1996 over the Mid-Atlantic states. Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast. I have attatched a chart of the solar cycle variations. This is interesting stuff, this shows that when there will be another solar minimum, during the winter it would be colder with above avg. snowfall. Larry can add more information on the 1995-96 if he'd like to.
Edit: based from this pattern from 1975-2005 (30 years) this could mean that 17-18 and part of 18-19 winter could be colder than normal if the sun is at a solar minimum. I do believe that there was a solor minimum from 2010-11, a peak of solar activity during 12-13 and then there was solar min. during 13-14 winter.
Edit: based from this pattern from 1975-2005 (30 years) this could mean that 17-18 and part of 18-19 winter could be colder than normal if the sun is at a solar minimum. I do believe that there was a solor minimum from 2010-11, a peak of solar activity during 12-13 and then there was solar min. during 13-14 winter.
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RollTide18
Member
5 year anniversary of that horrible Tornado Outbreak on March 2, 2012 coming up. Second deadliest March tornado outbreak with 41, 22 coming from Kentucky.
It was a huge storm too, you had tornado warnings stretching from Ohio all the way to south Alabama.
It was a huge storm too, you had tornado warnings stretching from Ohio all the way to south Alabama.
pcbjr
Member
... and rolling right along into the 7th circle of Dante's Inferno -
I have a feeling this is actually coming
... and rolling right along into the 7th circle of Dante's Inferno -
This is a good example to show that even a solid -EPO is normally going to lose out to a solid -PNA as far as a cold SE is concerned. It is typically very difficult to get sustained SE cold with a strong -PNA regardless of the existence of a solid -EPO. However, a -PNA along with a -EPO is often quite cold in the NW US as is in the forecast.
That said, I've noticed that recent model consensus isn't as amplified with the -PNA and thus isn't quite as cold in the NW US while also not quite as warm in the SE. Let's see whether or not this becomes a sustained trend. If so, we'd have a better chance to at least buck the prior trend and perhaps thankfully get back to closer to normal, if not eventually colder than normal as we get into March.
pcbjr
Member
You are clairvoyant!
(and you decipher me well!)
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pcbjr
Member
JB is going all in (FWIW)
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Just wonderful. Would be wonderful to have plants in full bloom and then a freeze.
Natures pruners!
Jon
Member
GEFS & EPS both look like they're getting in range for the pattern change at the end of the first week of March. Cooler temps are coming but I'm reluctant to believe anything more than a cold shot, or shots, followed by warmth. The ridge axis is a little too far west for me, we'll have a SER threatening a return as long as the ridge is off the west coast. Wall to wall cold for the entire US for the entire month per JB is extremely unlikely to me...
I wouldn't be surprised by that cold blast at all. It can happen, frosts can occur typically late as early April here in ATL. Some frosts can occur even as late April. I do believe that, as this summer goes along, it will start to become cooler than normal becuase the sun will start to have less solar activity. By '17-'18 winter, the sun will reach it's peak of solar minimum.
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Don,
Actually, though the sun will continue to get quieter during the winter of 2017-8, the next solar minimum (which should be a doozy) isn't expected until around the winter of 2019-2020 at the earliest. The prior minimum was around the winter of 2008-9.
pcbjr
Member
everything is working too weird this year ...
JB is going all in (FWIW)
March of 1954 saw quite a cold rain for March in Gainesville with a high of only 47 and a low of 34 on 3/7! Also, they had quite a chilly St Patty's with a high of only 59 and a low of 36!
SAV had a trace of wintry precip on 3/6 and a freeze on St Patty's!
Don't count your winter chicks until the March lion has had its say!
pcbjr
Member
That's what I meant, the solar minimum will be at it's minimum during the '17-'18 winter. The last lowest solar minimum was during the '13-'14 winter. The solar minimums occur every 5 years based from a 30 year chart. The last solar min before '13-'14 winter was during '09-'10 winter. That's when every state had snow on the ground except for HI in Feb. in 2010. Larry, did you see my post about '95-'96 winter? The solar minimum was at it's minimum during those years.
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