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Pattern Microwave March

Huge differences here in s/w orientation, and amplitude this run vs 18z, probably going to end up w/ a bigger storm further east...

Old run
gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png

New run

gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png
 
Kentucky getting crushed this run northern tenn looks like ZR though I have a hard time buying ZR


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This still produces winter weather in the northern half of TN but it's a little too far north of a tick for my liking in those parts...

Edit: ehhhhh now that I've compared it's not a huge difference. It definitely looks like the south trend has stopped though.
 
Looks like RDU north may do OK, of course Wake County would be a lot of mixing...the snow map would look decent. Big winner here is just north of Wake 10-12" it appears.
 
North half of Tennessee/Kentucky/Northern NC still do well but I'd be a little uncomfortable about the south trend stopping now with this winter's trends.
 
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Looks like RDU north may do OK, of course Wake County would be a lot of mixing...the snow map would look decent. Big winner here is just north of Wake 10-12" it appears.

A lot of that is probably sleet and freezing rain in northern Wake, realistically probably more like 4-7" except near VA border where it's mostly snow. Distribution reminiscent of Feb 1989 definitely a legitimate possibility
 
VA border crush job...not sure we want it amping that early here for RDU, need a slower and/or weaker vort

The last run had a weaker vort (as did the ECMWF) and RDU still had mixing issues, but the GFS is atrocious even w/ hybrid CAD so take it w/ grain of salt, although any WAA this time of the year sucks... If we really want a predominant SN p type we either need to thread the needle and risk it all on a miller A bomb or get the northern fringe of a modest/light overrunning event
 
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A lot of that is probably sleet and freezing rain in northern Wake, realistically probably more like 4-7" except near VA border where it's mostly snow. Distribution reminiscent of Feb 1989 definitely a legitimate possibility
I agree...any totals south of the border counties are really suspect with that low track/vort amplitude. This is where Kuchera fails....19" in south person/N Durham counties. But hey, Roxboro always jackpots.
 
North half of Tennessee/Kentucky/Northern NC still do well but I'd be a little uncomfortable about the south trend stopping now with this winter's trends.

This isn't gonna keep coming south. Gonna see a little bouncing around for the next few days . But there is no shot for miss ala and GA except for MAYBE NE Georgia mountains but that's doubtful at this point


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This isn't gonna keep coming south. Gonna see a little bouncing around for the next few days . But there is no shot for miss ala and GA except for MAYBE NE Georgia mountains but that's doubtful at this point


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I know I have no shot and can't go chase as I'm not alone, I'm just rooting for our folks in the upper south to actually get to see a winter storm. I declared my shot at seeing anything over at the end of February...
 
I agree...any totals south of the border counties are really suspect with that low track/vort amplitude. This is where Kuchera fails....19" in south person/N Durham counties. But hey, Roxboro always jackpots.

Yep very true the central piedmont battle zone is probably going to be sharp again unless something changes... Might as well take a huge chance w/ a miller A bomb and risk mixing that way esp when we know even this far out it's almost inevitable in RDU at some pt. Plus it's mid-March, we should consider ourselves very fortunate we're even in this position to begin w/ and winter is nearly over, so why not go for the Hail Mary?
 
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00z CMC is south nice little snow for most of Tennessee and Kentucky . Let's see where it goes


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