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Pattern Microwave March

The soil temp argument doesn't baffle me, I see where folks would be concerned...but on the list of "things you look at for a snow to work out in the SE" it's at the BOTTOM OF THE LIST. It's a fleeting thought...in fact, I'm not sure why mets bring it up as an actual argument 4-5 days out. Yes, it will cut into accumulations at onset...but it doesn't STOP them altogether. Soil temps is something, if I were forecasting, I'd bring up probably the night before...because we won't know for sure if they'll be 60 or 44 at onset (shocking!)
 
Webberweather53 said:
It really doesn't matter too much whether these storms occurred 10,20, or 50 years ago, but since you asked...
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I don't intend to sound harsh or anything in this post, it's just that I often feel like I'm beating a dead horse with the main point here which is: it has and can snow at this time of the year & even as late as mid April in central NC, but legitimately so?, probably the first few days of March, but that doesn't necessarily negate a storm from actually occurring... Some of the variability in winter weather events at specific times in the winter is also due to random chance along w/ long term background state changes. The mid 1920s-mid/late 1930s are loaded w/ winter storms on the week of March 10-17th, and a few years (1924, 1926, & 1934) had at least back-to-back storms, whereas very few, if any occurred in the entire first decade of the 1900s east of the mountains when the overall climate was considerably cooler than the present day
 
Jon said:
The soil temp argument doesn't baffle me, I see where folks would be concerned...but on the list of "things you look at for a snow to work out in the SE" it's at the BOTTOM OF THE LIST. It's a fleeting thought...in fact, I'm not sure why mets bring it up as an actual argument 4-5 days out. Yes, it will cut into accumulations at onset...but it doesn't STOP them altogether. Soil temps is something, if I were forecasting, I'd bring up probably the night before...because we won't know for sure if they'll be 60 or 44 at onset (shocking!)
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This twitter convo with brad you're having is entertaining. And just when I thought it couldn't get better, someone hops in and says "don't doubt brad he is smart". I don't even know how to handle some people. I don't understand how some people let others directly think for them.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't intend to sound harsh or anything in this post, it's just that I often feel like I'm beating a dead horse with the main point here which is: it has and can snow at this time of the year & even as late as mid April in central NC, but legitimately so?, probably the first few days of March, but that doesn't necessarily negate a storm from actually occurring... Some of the variability in winter weather events at specific times in the winter is also due to random chance along w/ long term background state changes. The mid 1920s-mid/late 1930s are loaded w/ winter storms on the week of March 10-17th, and a few years (1924, 1926, & 1934) had at least back-to-back storms, whereas very few, if any occurred in the entire first decade of the 1900s east of the mountains when the overall climate was considerably cooler than the present day
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You are right. It can snow this time of year or even later in April. It just seems to me like most of the big snows in march and april occurred many years ago when the climate was different.
 
So mixed in with the can it snow in March, ground temp nauseating arguments I see the models continue to say we have a chance. Every single 18z gefs member has snow here except one and that mean omg!!!

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Cary_Snow95 said:
This twitter convo with brad you're having is entertaining. And just when I thought it couldn't get better, someone hops in and says "don't doubt brad he is smart". I don't even know how to handle some people. I don't understand how some people let others directly think for them.
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A little friendly debate never hurt anyone...and if anyone is offended then they need not forecast weather...but yeah, that guy. I'd cringe if I was Brad after reading that guy's comment...if there's no better word, they're being a condescending fan girl. I hate when people attempt to speak for me, I'm sure brad does too.
 
metwannabe said:
So mixed in with the can it snow in March, ground temp nauseating arguments I see the models continue to say we have a chance. Every single 18z gefs member has snow here except one and that mean omg!!!

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When that balloon pops it's going to hurt


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SoutheastRidge said:
You are right. It can snow this time of year or even later in April. It just seems to me like most of the big snows in march and april occurred many years ago when the climate was different.
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Yeah, the climate definitely plays a significant role in this regard, however as I mentioned earlier, since our snowfall climatology isn't great to begin w/ even over a 30-40 year period, we only see one possible, brief snapshot out of the tens of millions (or more) possibilities for a given bgd and our sample sizes are very small, thus, some of the variation (in fact a large proportion of it) is likely due to random chance alone. The realization of such aforementioned non-physicalities being disproportionately represented in the modern, reliable record is what motivates climate modeling studies or observational reconstructions (like the one I'm currently doing for NC's snowfall record & ENSO) to derive a broader spectrum of potential variance and find how (if at all) the median, mean, distribution, extremes, and interaction of phenomena (such as southern US winter storms) are changing over time and what contribution, and how significant the various forcings are (Solar, QBO, ENSO, AGW, AMO/PDO, etc) are to "driving" or modulating these changes.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't intend to sound harsh or anything in this post, it's just that I often feel like I'm beating a dead horse with the main point here which is: it has and can snow at this time of the year & even as late as mid April in central NC, but legitimately so?, probably the first few days of March, but that doesn't necessarily negate a storm from actually occurring... Some of the variability in winter weather events at specific times in the winter is also due to random chance along w/ long term background state changes. The mid 1920s-mid/late 1930s are loaded w/ winter storms on the week of March 10-17th, and a few years (1924, 1926, & 1934) had at least back-to-back storms, whereas very few, if any occurred in the entire first decade of the 1900s east of the mountains when the overall climate was considerably cooler than the present day
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Winters in Charlotte during the last quarter of the nineteenth century and the early part of the 1900's were front-loaded with December snowfalls and few, if any, March snowfalls(1885 being the exception) during that same time period. I believe there were several white Christmases in the South during the 1870's
 
So, it's taking March, with one storm, to put lot of us above average snowfall,?
 
Eric said:
Winters in Charlotte during the last quarter of the nineteenth century and the early part of the 1900's were front-loaded with December snowfalls and few, if any, March snowfalls(1885 being the exception) during that same time period. I believe there were several white Christmases in the South during the 1870's
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You bring up a very good point here, I'm honestly scratching my head why there weren't more back-loaded winters in this era given the unusually rapid succession of moderate-strong NINOs occurred near the turn of the 19th century w/ 5 moderate-strong (or better) events (1896-97, 1899-00, 1902-03, 1904-05/1905-06) occurring in less than a decade. I think multidecadal variability (-PDO) and the prevalence of high-latitude stratospheric aerosols from a plethora of volcanic eruptions that occurred near and before this era played a role but it doesn't fully explain the magnitude and persistence of this overall behavior.
 
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