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Tropical Melissa
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This will be a great test to see how much cooling of the surface there is by 10/29. Here was the SST map as of 10/24: note the large area of 30-31C surrounding Jamaica, which is the warmest in the Atlantic basin:
Brent
Member
The satellite gets more impressive by the hour. The visibles in a few hours are gonna be something
Brent
Member
technically it wasn't even a hurricane 24 hours ago!Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have rapidly
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Bruh...
Brent
Member
It doesn't help a lot of areas on the island are in extreme poverty and not well off
It's almost like Puerto Rico after Maria or the lower 9th during Katrina basically
Aaron Rigsby cancelled his flight at the last minute he's so worried about the aftermath
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected
through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is
expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica
Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected
through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is
expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica
Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
Brent
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Josh is there, but he realistically expects to “be” in Jamaica for a while if this storm is as powerful as concerned on the island from what I read, kinda like his Dorian chase.
Brent
Member
Yeah Rigsby said he has friends there who are completely terrified of what this storms potential is
If HAFS-A or B are correct on intensity. This is going to change Jamaica forever. I hope the people stay safe and take this seriously
WTNT33 KNHC 261456
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
WTNT43 KNHC 261459
TCDAT3
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine,
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit,
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700-
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher,
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be
a little generous based on the aircraft data.
The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast,
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning,
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).
It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity
aids.
——————-
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
TCDAT3
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine,
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit,
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700-
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher,
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be
a little generous based on the aircraft data.
The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast,
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning,
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).
It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity
aids.
——————-
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
700 m is around 2,300 ft in elevation.
2,000 m is around 6,500 ft
2,000 m is around 6,500 ft
Looks like latest recon is 945mb
Mercy..eye looks clear. Primed for some RI