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Pattern Mega March 2023

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Not really hard to see why the GFS is working and the EURO isn't right now. GFS immediately has a stronger TPV that turns into our 50/50 and is further SE vs the EURO. Also the GFS separates and gets a nice consolidated bowling ball action to help pull in CAA whereas the EURO is strung out more and can't tap into the cold air pool that is also retreating. GFS has everything going just about right with it and to me that causes me to pause.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro op was close last night and quite the shift.... blip or trend? Too early to tell but looks like still a tiny bit of noise on the EPS with the slightest of SE shift with the mean but without access to individual panels not sure exactly what's going on with it

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Yeah that’s one thing no one has talked about overnight. That was a huge shift!
 
The most lame scenario here is too weak and offshore for the mountains to cash in. Which seems like a very realistic possibility with what the euro/cmc/icon are showing. Let's hope the trend of the winter continues and this storm ramps up on modeling in the medium range.
 
rburrel2 said:
FWIW the EPS doesn't like the storm b/c most of the members are suppressed/OTS/don't have a storm. I feel better about trending towards a storm ramping up on the Euro/EPS than basically any other trend we would need, (still not saying it's likely though).
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You can't forget the universal SE truth...when we need it to amp to snow, the shortwave will pass, whiff safely to our south. When we need it to not amp, it will amp, go neutral way west and the storm will pass over clt.

That's been the anecdotal pattern I've observed. EPS will be correct one way or another if I had to bet. GEFS is horrible.
 
06z EPS looks even more suppressive due to more interaction from the PNW trough and a weaker desert SW ridge to amplify the parent SW.
 
Not too excited with this next system. GFS has been horrible this year and without much support from other models it looks like another Lucy too me. But on the other hand we rarely get completely shut out in my neck of the woods so I guess there's a chance.
 
FWIW The 12z Icon shifted a little NW from the 6z run for Tuesday
 
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
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I know your knowledge is much higher than mine and I enjoy reading and learning from you on here, but dang man can you ever say anything positive?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
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I would not say this winter that any model has been "good".
 
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