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Pattern Mega March 2023

A lot of GEFS members now on board with a storm… only problem is the cold air many are widespread cold rain monsters. I like the storm signal but we need a defined low pressure up the coast to be able to maximize cold air and bring that down to the surface. Anything sloppy or strung out isn’t going to use the cold air properly to get snow outside of the mountains.
 
Yea the margin is thin even on the 12z gfs op. Would be really nice if this storm could evolve like the 12z gfs shows but speed up about 6 hours. That’s the sweet spot we need to find
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Major uptick on GEFS members. This screams elevation dependent though especially if it's daytime.
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Well obviously timing is a detail that gets settled closer, if there is storm. That said it looks as though this arrives during the overnight on that GFS run.
 
ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
How the weekend system goes once it's in the NE into SE Canada is the key player to anything next week. A weak system means this system is NW like the euro a stronger system is more suppressed like the gfs

Edit there's also a quirky little shortwave ridge that's over the lakes on some modeling that could throw a wrench into this as well
 
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