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Pattern Mega March 2023

From RAH. I would be happy with just seeing snow fall:

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

..Snow/sleet could mix with rain at times Sunday morning across the
northern Piedmont with little to no accumulations expected...

Located along the southern fringes of a prominent closed low/upper
trough crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, highly perturbed
flow will fuel strong WAA and isentropic lift across the SE US,
beginning early Sunday morning, maximized across the area during the
day Sunday, and then diminishing from west to east late Sunday
night.

A weak Miller-B low pressure system associated with these upper
impulses will track south of the area, with in-situ damming
developing across central NC.

Rain is still expected to be the dominate precip type across central
NC. However, the antecedent dry air in place across northern
Piedmont, featuring BL dewpoints in the mid lower to mid 20s, will
potentially aide to wet-bulb cool temps into the lower to mid 30s
Sunday morning, during which time forecast soundings indicate an
impressive deep iso-thermal layer, that could potentially support a
wintry mix of predominate rain mixed with snow/sleet at times during
the morning hours across the northern Piedmont. Often times, precip
rates dictate the predominate p-type in deep isothermal profiles.
Given the strongest moisture transport is forecast to remain across
southern NC, the opportunity for the sufficient precip rates could
be very limited/fleeting and thus any snow//sleet accumulations will
be difficult to come by. Other factors that will greatly limit
accumulations are BL temps remaining above freezing and occurring
during daylight hours and very late in the season, and finally very
warm ground temps in the mid/upper 40s.


9z RAP kuchera:
1678531186965.png
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_39.png
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH. I would be happy with just seeing snow fall:

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

..Snow/sleet could mix with rain at times Sunday morning across the
northern Piedmont with little to no accumulations expected...

Located along the southern fringes of a prominent closed low/upper
trough crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, highly perturbed
flow will fuel strong WAA and isentropic lift across the SE US,
beginning early Sunday morning, maximized across the area during the
day Sunday, and then diminishing from west to east late Sunday
night.

A weak Miller-B low pressure system associated with these upper
impulses will track south of the area, with in-situ damming
developing across central NC.

Rain is still expected to be the dominate precip type across central
NC. However, the antecedent dry air in place across northern
Piedmont, featuring BL dewpoints in the mid lower to mid 20s, will
potentially aide to wet-bulb cool temps into the lower to mid 30s
Sunday morning, during which time forecast soundings indicate an
impressive deep iso-thermal layer, that could potentially support a
wintry mix of predominate rain mixed with snow/sleet at times during
the morning hours across the northern Piedmont. Often times, precip
rates dictate the predominate p-type in deep isothermal profiles.
Given the strongest moisture transport is forecast to remain across
southern NC, the opportunity for the sufficient precip rates could
be very limited/fleeting and thus any snow//sleet accumulations will
be difficult to come by. Other factors that will greatly limit
accumulations are BL temps remaining above freezing and occurring
during daylight hours and very late in the season, and finally very
warm ground temps in the mid/upper 40s.


9z RAP kuchera:
View attachment 134189
Click to expand...

MHX even talks about sleet here in the east....

as frontogenetic band develops early
in the day with column quickly saturating, and this overrunning
is expected through the rest of the day as it spreads E and N.
Sndgs indicate a period of sleet at the precip onset, as column
wet bulbs will be near 0 and a dry sub cloud layer in place
allowing for an hour or two of non-impactful PL.
 
We’re not going to see this much snow on the ground at one time with this event but I’ve gone from nothing on yesterdays 6z GEFS to almost a 2” mean on the latest run
 
Downeastnc said:
MHX even talks about sleet here in the east....

as frontogenetic band develops early
in the day with column quickly saturating, and this overrunning
is expected through the rest of the day as it spreads E and N.
Sndgs indicate a period of sleet at the precip onset, as column
wet bulbs will be near 0 and a dry sub cloud layer in place
allowing for an hour or two of non-impactful PL.
Click to expand...
Yep. The earlier this precip can get in the better. We can also track how the dew points drop today. From the models, it looks like this is more of a north/south (possible) event. Meaning folks in the coastal plain have a good shot as well.

Man I would like to just see some snow fall at my house. I saw a couple of snow events at Boone but I would like to see it for the lower elevations.
 
BullCityWx said:
We’re not going to see this much snow on the ground at one time with this event but I’ve gone from nothing on yesterdays 6z GEFS to almost a 2” mean on the latest run
Click to expand...
As RAH discussed, too many things (warm grounds, surface temps) will stop us from seeing much accumulation. I'm at a mind set that seeing snow fall from the sky will be a win with this event. Going back to the 9z RAP, the 10:1 shows 4-5" across the Triangle area. Again not much of that would accumulate, but it would be beautiful falling.
 
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