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Pattern Mega March 2023

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This is even funnier because this is a textbook cold chasing moisture setup as depicted by the GFS. Already know how that will end.
 
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Well now that I look at it, that is a good way to get a winter storm. TPV sitting along the border with a strong -NAO locking in the 50/50 so we have a little bit of SER to help pump moisture, but clearly not pumping the warm air with it. GFS was in the mid 50's as the front pushed through so that gives me pause with that much lower heights around that we wouldn't be colder. Problem is Mid March and I will keep going back to that until we score.
 
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Model consensus is I see CAD snow Sunday afternoon. Pretty good consensus at this point.
 
Looks like good agreement on the possibility of seeing some snow. Right now, it looks like northern NC up into Va. Probably little to no accumulation, but it would still be nice to see some flakes falling from the sky. We're also within 5 days so maybe...
 
I think you @BullCityWx and the gso/va folks are in a decent spot but we are all likely going to be fighting over getting any decent banding and longer duration precip to wetbulb the 850-925 layer and break snow through the surface. Right now it looks like brief onset sleet to a nice 36-38 and rain for many of us
 
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