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Pattern Mega March 2023

Myfrotho704_ said:
Tbh that’s why ens means that far out is overrated some cluster of members had this similar look
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I get that, but I'm sure within any given ensemble suite, if it has enough members, you can probably pick any handful of members that hit close to the actual solution.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Well, it was showing this for Saturday at D10:

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Now we have this:

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I guess that's a pretty good forecast. Maybe your image will change for the better, given that it's 336 hours out from now. ?‍♂️
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Fair point, but the image he showed was only 192 hours out and trending colder… not saying it’s right, but I think most of us will be seeing 10-15 degrees below average for that time period
 
Hpdb301 said:
Once the SER starts building it's hard to knock it back down, it happens but it seems to take some major pressure changes to push it back south. It's always hell for models to properly depict. It happens but its tough! I would assume the models standard input is from times past climatological data and as we've seen in the past 10 years what seems to be a change or shift from that standard is. I don't research or study this stuff except for personal interests, but have seen a significant struggle in model output to depict the dreaded SER or Southeastern Ridge and how much influence it has on the weather in the eastern conus this time of year the models regularly depict cold pushes to the Florida coasts in the long range and day by day those outputs continually recede keeping the cold pushed back. What the exact kicker is to say what pressure variant and where on the globe these have to be to allow for the cold pushes this time of year, I have no clue! But I would imagine if you located those keys, you'd be able to accurately depict cold pushes this time of year... my unprofessional 4am thoughts.
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Haven’t really been looking at anything the last few days because to me outside of some below average temps for a few days, winter is over. What I feared would happen 2 weeks ago happened with a big below average anomaly fest in the long range moderated. Shouldn’t be surprised as all of these models spit out ridiculous cold in the winter and heat in the summer in the LR just to come back to reality plus counting on record breaking cold in mid March when air masses are moderating probably isn’t smart either. Only thing that gave me hope was that it didn’t look like a typical 2 day cold blast that’s in and out and actually was modeled to have some staying power. Severe weather season me as this has been as depressing of a winter as I can remember in a long time.
 
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