An epic snow pattern was never being shown. A colder pattern was being shown and a colder pattern is still being shownRemember the fantasy epic cold/snow pattern the EPS was predicting....what a shocker to see it evaporate. ?
Today's EPS run v/s 3 days ago. Big ole trough in the west now.
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Pattern that was being modeled that had peoples interest has fallen apart. You can spin it by saying muted BN is still “colder” but that reaching.
I don't know what the big lovefest is with the EPS. I mean, you can roll out global model scores if you want, but in terms of being what I would call a good and reliable model/suite, it's far from it. Anecdotally, it seems to shift around way more than it used to.Remember the fantasy epic cold/snow pattern the EPS was predicting....what a shocker to see it evaporate. ?
Today's EPS run v/s 3 days ago. Big ole trough in the west now.
View attachment 134041
I suppose. Before it was a mainly cold and dry pattern which would’ve been hard to get snow regardless but very below normal.. now it’s just below normal and some periods of precip but we would need either more cold air or weird phasing/ amplifications to be able to get some snow in the upper SE regions which fight now isn’t being modeled. But we are going to say goodbye to the 70-80s and see frost and freeze potentials coming back into the picture for a bit.
Thanks
Compared to its counterparts? It's the best one we have available.
If you're comparing rabbit poop to horse poop, I guess I would go with rabbit poop. But at the end of the day, they're both poop. But calling it a good model is just plain bull poop.
Disagree 100%. Using the mean temps and smoothed anomalies past D5 as the data point of truth is the poop. It's obvious the eps is going to bust to a degree here but when 70% of the members are going to fall within 5 degrees of where we probably verify it looks good to me
Yep, not that cold pattern I’ve seen posted the past 6 weeks.
With March snowstorms you’re likely going to sneak a snowstorm into a string of weather like this (most likely at the beginning or end of it). I’ve seen late March light accumulating snowfall a day after temperatures were in the 70s. You’re not going to get extended cold this time of year, it’s not really possible with how strong the sun is in mid-March, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak a nighttime snowstorm in, even if it’s in the upper 50s with a river of melting 24 hours later.
Likely upper 40's and low 50's. Typical average January type day so it will still feel like winter going through the extended. Nobody should've ever expected snow in mid March and I don't think anyone was. Delaying heat and humidity through the extended are wins at this point in the year.
The 90s were the worst decade for snow here. But guess what? This decade is worse so far. By mid March 93 we had 14.9 inches for the decade. This decade 9.2 inches. Could the 20s become the least snowiest decade? Most likely with how it's started out and the fact it seems way harder to get cold and snow anymore.
