Brick Tamland
Member
As bad as the GFS is, the Euro isn't that much better when it comes to showing winter storms more than 7 days out that never come to happen.
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Pattern Mega March 2023
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Dawgdaze22
Member
Wejjjjjes? are coming
iGRXY
Member
It’s really a kick to the gut when you can get a 7 day average like this in mid March but not January.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Not surprised at all. He's so smart.
rburrel2
Member
You realize a smoothed mean is really useless for predicting minimum temperatures right?
Agreed… you really have to look more at 500mb heights and 850mb temps… both of which indicate multiple chances of hard freezes.
ATLwxfan
Member
I’m paying attention more to trends with the temps. They’ve trended warmer. The 18z GFS was a bit of a warning shot regarding sustained cold.
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iGRXY
Member
You’ve got to stop using the GFS as a basis for your points. It is a bad model with even more violent swings than any other. Especially the off hour GFS. If The GFS and GEFS were even remotely useful, then I’d have 2 major snows already this season. I’ve had a 4+ inch mean on the GEFS under a 100 hours twice this winter with zero to show for it. The cold isn’t moderating. A 7 day ensemble mean from probably the most reliable long range model we can use is averaging 10-14 degree departs from average on a smooth spread. That is ridiculously cold for this time of year.No it wasn’t because the GFS is a useless model that the WPC doesn’t use when putting together their outlooks. As I stated above ensembles are showing 500mb heights and 850mb temps that would be conducive for multiple nights of overnight lows well down into the 20s, but if we want to look at surface temperature trends then we can see that the overnight Euro ensemble is showing a widespread 10-14 degrees below average over a 7 day period from 3-12 to 3/19.
NoSnowATL
Member
In the same breath I would say you have to stop using maps 8-15 days out.
I want it to be bitterly cold as much as the next guy, but by the same token, we've seen D7+ cold snaps on the GFS, CMC, and, Euro greatly moderate over and over and over as well. You can't honestly criticize anything while basing the critique on a Day 8-13 model prog.
I agree that it looks like a cool-down is coming, but I'd be hesitant to embrace bitterly cold, well below freezing temps for a widespread region until we get it to show up within 4 or 5 days.
ATLwxfan
Member
Canadian swings back to a pretty darn cold look for early next week.
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If anyone is still looking for snow the cmc was how you would want to get there. There is still a decent amount of noise in that 3/15-18 period but these trends aren't that great
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I’m noticing in the last couple days of teleconnection updates that the PNA is now look to go positive in the 13-15 timeframe. If that happens, I worry that we may say a set up like around Christmas with such a strong NW flow that any potential energy to produce a storm gets suppressed way too far south.
tennessee storm
Member
Hard get that setup in March. Like December ….
Looks like an evolution to more of the same garbage that we've seen through the winter. Meh
That “extreme cold” is turning into upper 50s over 30s, haha wack 