Always love seeing those 11am boomers pop up in the mountains. 
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Pattern May Thread
- Thread starter Detective WX
- Start date
So we got 2 camps of models for tomorrow:
1. The GFS / EURO / HRRR / RAP showing highs in the mid/upper 90s.
2. The NAM / NAM ensembles / GEM only showing highs in the low/mid 80s.
^^^We will find out which set of these models is terrible. I want to lean towards #2, but on the other hand, #2 does a good job of picking up on those shallow cold fronts that end up stronger than forecasted.
1. The GFS / EURO / HRRR / RAP showing highs in the mid/upper 90s.
2. The NAM / NAM ensembles / GEM only showing highs in the low/mid 80s.
^^^We will find out which set of these models is terrible. I want to lean towards #2, but on the other hand, #2 does a good job of picking up on those shallow cold fronts that end up stronger than forecasted.
Beach week looking like a good one ? ??
NoSnowATL
Member
That sucks. I’ll be down in a few weeks. Rain is always my biggest fear.Beach week looking like a good one ? ??
It’s just the GFS. Peeped the euro and Canadian and they aren’t showing anything like what the GFS is showing.
Finally, DFW has broken a record high, which for today is 94*F.
Currently 95*F.
.
Currently 95*F.
.
Who y’all got?
Unfortunately, with the MJO headed into Phase 7, the GFS is plausible.
And now, with a current temp of 96*F, it is the hottest day of the year.
Shaggy
Member
`keep it out there all summer please
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That heat next week looks miserable! Fortunately the GFS keeps wanting to bring the front through on the 23rd. We'll see.
The high will apparently be 97*F.
Ouch, mid and upper 90s by Thursday and Friday this week here in central southern NC.
whatalife
Moderator
Having our third round of rain today barely over 0.4
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This was scary, I’m sure! 
HurricaneSolomon
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Looking at this week’s forecast for central NC I’m pretty sure if I want to mow my grass this week... tomorrow needs to be that day.
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I guess the severe threat today doesn't look like much since we don't have a thread.
NCSNOW
Member
RAH NWS:
Seeing only a glancing shot from the impressive northern stream
trough, central NC will find itself on the far southern fringes of
the better forcing/trough dynamics and shear that`s forecast to
extend from VA north. As such, it`s not surprising to see NWP model
guidance trends toward far less convective coverage across central
NC.
Pretty typical late spring severe threat for us. A few wind reports, a few hail reports, not a huge needle mover
Hey Everybody, Like to introduce my friend (...going as Don Blake). He's a man of details and will be a great asset providing observations for the south Raleigh area.
Under a severe thunderstorm watch until 9:00 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC001-007-013-015-029-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-
067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-
123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-163-165-167-
177-181-183-185-187-191-195-170100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0228.220516T1715Z-220517T0100Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LEE LENOIR
MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC001-007-013-015-029-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-
067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-
123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-163-165-167-
177-181-183-185-187-191-195-170100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0228.220516T1715Z-220517T0100Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LEE LENOIR
MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
Have a feeling this line approaching the watch might get a little outflow dominant and choke off as it approaches US1. If it doesn't SB capes around 2500 ML capes around 1500 and increasing Dcape should give us a few wind reports and maybe a couple of hail reports in any longer duration updrafts
Shaggy
Member
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Finally summer like weather!?
Shaggy
Member
Big wind and rain. Surged power here at work shut the plant down.
Have a warning to the north of me in Franklinton.
Since when are 50s and 60s summer-like weather?
Brent
Member
I got to Galveston late last night and honestly temperature wise it's not a lot different than when I've been in late July last few years. Houston has been above normal everyday this month(their average is 86 for reference today) and no end in sight at least through Friday or even Saturday
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Rough few days coming up but the windows will be open the next couple of nights with mid 50s coming! I love what the GFS is doing after the weekend heat; several fronts seem to be heading our way. Still way out there and very possibly won't happen but great to still see some comfortable temps possible as we head towards June.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Yep! Gonna be the year without a summer!Rough few days coming up but the windows will be open the next couple of nights with mid 50s coming! I love what the GFS is doing after the weekend heat; several fronts seem to be heading our way. Still way out there and very possibly won't happen but great to still see some comfortable temps possible as we head towards June.
Unless there's an intra-hour or 5pm high, DFW will be 89'd today. ?
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Shaggy
Member
Can't say we've had a lot of thunderstorm days here but the days we have had have so far been solid. Just had another big storm in Pitt County. 2 weeks ago we had 4 severe storms in one day and now this makes the 2nd one today.
Downeastnc
Member
2 storms so far last one had nickel size hail....waiting to see what the storms over RDU can do ifcthey hold up.