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Pattern May Thread

Brent said:
Happy May!

Could be pushing 90 Sunday View attachment 117994
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DFW is going to spend the day in upper 50s / low 60s. Still not at record levels (which is 49*F), but nearly 20*F below normal.

That said, on paper, today's high will actually be 78*F, which was set at Midnight right before the squall line moved in.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This mornings models have booted that cutoff further east, we are really close to scorching, look how much the gefs has warmed for ex
Old
View attachment 117989NewView attachment 117990View attachment 117991
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I really hate to see that. Normally I can wait till nearly June to turn ac on full time as the nights are cool enough to open windows and keep the inside temps fairly comfortable, but mid 60s following upper 80s won't get it done. You wanted an early summer and you have it.

Edit: the 6z gfs run was much cooler so I'm going to hug it till it delivers or pops!
 
Can tell this GFS run is gonna be even quicker with booting the cutoff /closer to the ridge A51A27F2-2622-4F36-9030-F5BB0DC6ED91.png
 
Brent said:
Dang that's bullishView attachment 118009

On the other hand the severe threat is probably next to zero
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I doubt the warm front makes it up to you which will limit your threat to mainly heavy rain. Gonna be closer down my way. Warm front looks to stall around I-40 right now, but I’ve seen it end up further south than anticipated in these heavy rainfall systems so it will be a wait and see.
 
Highs today

RDU - 89
CLT - 87
Salisbury -85
Monroe-87
Concord -90…… yeah it’s overheating like hell. Next nearest official station only 85.


Fayetteville -91
Greensboro -86
 
Lickwx said:
Highs today

RDU - 89
CLT - 87
Salisbury -85
Monroe-87
Concord -90…… yeah it’s overheating like hell. Next nearest official station only 85.


Fayetteville -91
Greensboro -86
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There were also storms in the area right around peak heating, so concord easily could have been 5F above nearby stations
 
PGV hit 90 for the first time this year.....the mean first date is May 6th so right on schedule.....
 
12z EURO is showing 7 straight days of 90*F+ temps for Dallas from 5/7 to 5/14, and based on the upper level pattern it depicts, with no end in sight.

12z GFS isn't as extreme, but still show 90s starting 5/7 through 5/13.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
12z EURO is showing 7 straight days of 90*F+ temps for Dallas from 5/7 to 5/14, and based on the upper level pattern it depicts, with no end in sight.

12z GFS isn't as extreme, but still show 90s starting 5/7 through 5/13.
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Even up here it's looking like at least a week of mid 80s minimum with some 90s

We haven't had a day over 83-84 yet and the warmth has been a day or two here and there. It's gonna be a shock to the system plus with all this rain I'm sure a lot of humidity and mosquitoes
 
The heavy rains the past couple of weeks have mostly been on the NE edge of the drought area, so they didn't do much to bust it

At this point though, the damage is done. Positive feedback loop incoming for the near-term...
 
Brent said:
Even up here it's looking like at least a week of mid 80s minimum with some 90s

We haven't had a day over 83-84 yet and the warmth has been a day or two here and there. It's gonna be a shock to the system plus with all this rain I'm sure a lot of humidity and mosquitoes
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Yeah, the temperature gradient has been something. We've been in full fledged summer since mid-March down here, with only 2 days below 70*F (and both were in the upper 60s).
 
I'm excited for that cut-off low that's going to be spinning down to the NE FL, and then the second one that meanders around the NE. They are should keep the weather interesting down in SE Florida.
 
I will take what the 12z gfs is showing for any May. The front comes through this weekend with much nicer weather for days and nights.
gfs_T2m_us_16.png

?

After, it becomes unsettled with bouts of rain and showers but temps stay closer to average.
gfs_T2m_us_30.png

?
There is really only one day of heat showing for the SE on the 16th...
gfs_T2m_us_46.png


?

... but another front pushes down from the NW to provide relief.

gfs_T2m_us_56.png


?

Overall, not a bad stretch!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I will take what the 12z gfs is showing for any May. The front comes through this weekend with much nicer weather for days and nights.
gfs_T2m_us_16.png

?

After, it becomes unsettled with bouts of rain and showers but temps stay closer to average.
gfs_T2m_us_30.png

?
There is really only one day of heat showing for the SE on the 16th...
gfs_T2m_us_46.png


?

... but another front pushes down from the NW to provide relief.

gfs_T2m_us_56.png


?

Overall, not a bad stretch!
Click to expand...
Uhhh low 60s are not closer to average . Equivalent anomaly in the positive direction would mean highs in the low to mid 90s.
 
Lickwx said:
Uhhh low 60s are not closer to average . Equivalent anomaly in the positive direction would mean highs in the low to mid 90s.
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Well that particular frame is rain induced, the other ones are pretty average around that time. I used that one as it really shows the influence of the back door front and rain. Besides, we just had a whole week of mid to upper 80s with some lower 90s around, so there's that. ?
 
Lickwx said:
It will back off . I don’t see how god dang Saguenay in Quebec is going to be warmer than us .
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Maybe but it's a solid tap to a maritime feed from our area north and east. It'll be hard to break out of morning stratus and drizzle the longer the flow is established
 
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