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Pattern May Thread

Y’all keep your drought down there!?7F3D6E99-3A2A-44FA-A491-89102D3F7B6E.png
 
Me shame and Liz got a bet going for total precip from now until 8pm on Tuesday.
I say over 2.5 inches for RDU and over 1.5 inches for Shane’s house. Shane took the under on both and Liz says over 2.0 for Shane’s place and over 1.0 for RDU … let’s see where things shake out but I believe we’re in for a sizable rain maker in NC
 
I just had a brief sprinkle, the humidity has only come up to 58% after 9PM. I wonder how much time we have before the Allatoona and Lanier really start to drop levels. The prior wet periods have the river flow probably fairly close to normal, at least for now. To go 40 to 50+ days without any significant rainfall into June could really start some serious evaporation out of both lakes.
How are things now? Looks like a deluge throughout all of Georgia right now
 
How are things now? Looks like a deluge throughout all of Georgia right now
It’s great, thankfully! I really thought we might miss the bulk to the west based on some short range guidance during the 00z runs, but the It’s been good. Most stations are reporting over an inch already.
 
AI driven or not, i almost always take summer nado forecasts with a grain of salt. There's a paper i saw years ago (but still feels very true, it has completely stuck with me) that basically implied once you get into summer regimes you can basically throw STP and all of the model driven supercell/tornado parameters out (or at least respect them way less) as their accuracy of predicting outbreaks goes down a lot.
 
My Tempest is at 1.15", but it is generally 10-20% low, there are two stations on each side of me that I keep tabs on and one has 1.46" and 1.36".
 
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