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Pattern May Thread

Per NWS: THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES... At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. 5 to 8 inches of rain have fallen. https://wsvn.com/weather-alerts/

As I and Miami NWS said the other day, the airmass coming up was going to be wetter than indicated on models, and this will drive up into the Apps and Ohio Valley to enhance the rainfall totals along the incoming frontal system. We broke a Maximum Low Temperature of 77 yesterday with a Low of 79, and some places were able to hold at 82 before heavy T-Storms at 2-3AM last night prevented multiple monthly record-breaking event. Temperatures still made it near 89 degrees despite cloud cover and rainfall.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
Cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating should support
moderate to strong instability across much of the Southeast on
Saturday. Even though winds aloft are forecast to remain generally
weak, pulse-like convection and perhaps a few multicells may be
capable of producing isolated hail and damaging winds through the
afternoon and early evening.
Click to expand...
Hopefully tomorrow evening will be prime for you to get some good lightning pics
 
Chazwin said:
Hopefully tomorrow evening will be prime for you to get some good lightning pics
Click to expand...

The vort heading to you guys is exactly the one that's affecting S. FL today, and one of the pieces of energy that caused the GFS to incorrectly illustrate tropical development over West Caribbean and East Gulf. There's another vort that will come out of the Gulf. They should bring your area up to slight or enhanced risk for excessive rainfall.
 

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Looks like 87.4F will be the highest temp I hit this week after the forecasted 90s. Only 84.4F today.

1653076955130.png
 
18z GFS and NAM both try to blow up a QLCS to our west that blasts through here this evening.

The cap is squashing development so far though.

But if we get screwed out of our 90*F tomorrow, I darn well better get some nice storms as a consolation...
 
Models continue to struggle with convection this morning, as the radar remains quiet this morning acroas Southern OK and North TX.

This afternoon could get interesting. The same models have been indicating a line of storms developing mid/late afternoon along the front as it eases SE. Most of them hold off on organization until just SE of DFW, although initiation slightly earlier than projected would make a big difference for impacts in DFW proper. This is certainly a plausible solution as the cap should be non-existent by midday.

If that happens, soundings are certainly supportive of damaging downburst winds and flash flooding.
 
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Hmmmmmm nice little cluster over my neck of the woods today on the FV 3

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_11.png
 
Overall not a bad pattern showing on the GFS. Looks like a much wetter pattern for those in a drought, a cooler pattern for us heat haters, but still a few hotter days sprinkled in there for the heat misers; a little something for everyone. For my area in particular, verbatim, it would be much cooler through the end of May. And this would even be a nice start to June!

gfs_T2m_us_48.png
 
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