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May be?

Well past 5 runs of GFS keeps trending less rain. I’m not complaining a wet Monday will be plenty! But even it has trended northern NC. C64CAC8B-9C1B-44A4-91D6-816A17236F0C.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Massive increase on this EPS run. I would definitely lean towards the wetter members if anything given how the synoptic pattern has been evolving.
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Watch the trends not the swings in extremes. I think the tropical development will aid in better rain rates Monday but after that we will be on the western side of a cyclone where air tends to sink (dry out and warm). Hope that helps.
 
Of course the rain chances are falling apart. At this point keep the damn UL far enough away so we stay warm
 
SD said:
Of course the rain chances are falling apart. At this point keep the damn UL far enough away so we stay warm
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6z EPS has about 24 members with 1" QPF through day 6. I'm just hoping for good soaking (0.5"qpf). The ULL getting trapped SW of us has gone kaput it seems.

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Wet pattern and model foolery has the tropical system to blame. It’s very hard if not impossible to see wet daily thunderstorms on the west side of a coastal cyclone. Air sinks.
 
Watching the rain totals with each run...
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Well as soon as I said Euro backed off the trapped ULL...

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I'm just thankful that that intense heat (mid 90s in many cases) that was showing up on early week runs for next week are gone like magic. Now barely to 90 on hottest days. Loving this May! No longer just May be? Thanks again @pcbjr for the May inspiration!
Maybe this will be the summer of upper level lows to keep heat under control much of the time? One can always hope.
 
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GaWx said:
I'm just thankful that that intense heat (mid 90s in many cases) that was showing up on early week runs for next week are gone like magic. Now barely to 90 on hottest days. Loving this May! No longer just May be? Thanks again @pcbjr for the May inspiration!
Maybe this will be the summer of upper level lows to keep heat under control much of the time? One can always hope.
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Beats the heck out of what were about to get in to a year ago this time ... 100º plus for days on end ... remember?
?
 
So hello 40s in almost june and dumping cold rain over NC while entire rest of nation is warm ?
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yep, nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina! ?
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Ahhh yes record cold while everyone else is pleasant and warm. It sure does. Besides you live in South Carolina its hardly ever much below average there and according to that map you will be comfortably warm
 
Thunderstorms Monday still looks like they could pack a punch


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smast16 said:
Good catch. I didn't even realize I was still looking at 00Z.

Wednesday still looks cold, but moving in the right direction.
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If we can back this west enough to stay on the east side we would be good. Ill trade a day in the 60s for 2 inches of rain and a nice weekend next weekend
 
Lickwx said:
Ahhh yes record cold while everyone else is pleasant and warm. It sure does. Besides you live in South Carolina its hardly ever much below average there and according to that map you will be comfortably warm
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Yeah, I'd be just outside the wedge by those maps, still cooler than many but not in the heart of it. But anyway, I'll take record cold any day of the calendar year!
 
Today turned out to be a nice warm spring day (although average for where we're at now). It was in the 80s but with the clouds bringing some shade and a bit of a breeze, it felt fine to me. I think it's the sun beating down combined with humidity that really gets me unless it's just unreasonable in the evening too (but I was out in the afternoon).
 
Jessy89 said:
A severe weather thread should be made for Monday.
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Fantastic idea let’s start a thread 3 day’s out on a SPC general thunderstorm risk for the NC/TN border counties and see how it pans out?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Fantastic idea let’s start a thread 3 day’s out on a SPC general thunderstorm risk for the NC/TN border counties and see how it pans out?
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Southeast in general seems like a pretty good chance of convective batch of storms that could be severe


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Why I think we have severe weather Monday.
You have a cold front with a low on it down around south Alabama and South Georgia then you have Arthur. Add heat and humidity with the heating of the day boom. Both lows and a front should all aid in the development of severe weather there’s just more dynamics to give these storms a bit more punch. Could be wrong but I think someone in the Carolinas especially gets severe weather.


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I’d expect to see this upgraded to a slight risk tomorrow.


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