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May be?

2% tor/2% damaging winds tomorrow, tomorrow evening looks favorable for wet microbursts and some minor shear for organization 43D86B46-BCF8-4C6F-91E5-F858B6D462E2.png1B150A4D-0E0C-4221-A18A-2940048F5E21.png
 
If we get any wet microbursts tomorrow, especially if the convection becomes more organized trees are going to be dropping like flies. Not good considering the excessive damage the Charlotte metro saw last week.
 
Hrrr looks decent, perfect soundings for wet microbursts given the large planetary boundary layer moisture and then dry air entrainment aloft for stronger downdrafts, add big PWATs to help the process of water loading, and oh yeah DCAPE over 1000 joules is sufficient for stronger downdrafts, those surface dews tomorrow are disgusting 0E495F3F-3B4A-4EDA-9885-1435B4DE47E8.png571FEABF-180F-4FBB-8992-D098B116F0AB.pngC7E8A2C8-F5C7-478F-8403-63EB7FDDF9B9.png
 
I can see why they added a 2% tor given storm relative helicity around 1km and 3km will hover around a hundred given the increase in 3km shear and 30-40kts of mid level flow, parameters are somewhat similar to last Friday
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I can see why they added a 2% tor given storm relative helicity around 1km and 3km will hover around a hundred given the increase in 3km shear and 30-40kts of mid level flow, parameters are somewhat similar to last Friday
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Yeah, I was just going to mention some of the similarities from last Friday. Definitely need to stay weather aware tomorrow, especially if you have lots of trees around your house which is a good bet considering our tree canopy. Also, I could see some more hydro issues. Our soils just can't handle any more water.
 
Lol nam for Friday was just drunk, not only is there large BL moisture but lapse rates are approaching 7C, that would support very large hail given the mid level flow, but the nam is notorious for this, but there is hints that some EML air will try to make it here Friday which in response would increase lapse rates 8CA02B11-C3C4-4107-B4D7-34203F196FB0.png88271F42-A222-4F76-AC9C-D289AAC204A6.png36E77A6E-AB62-4F3C-9828-A60846FEE384.png
 
Tornado Warning for Wake County

Tornado Warning
NCC037-085-183-272145-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0021.200527T2055Z-200527T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
455 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
East central Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Angier, or 12 miles northeast of Lillington,
moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Fuquay-Varina around 510 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Crosswinds Boating Center, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Seaforth Boat
Dock, Crosswinds Campground and New Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7864 3552 7871 3552 7870 3549 7873
3566 7912 3587 7889 3586 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 132DEG 18KT 3556 7872

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
 
This is a good example of why I wish we didn't have a separate board for tropical stuff. We're talking about the storms from Bertha on both boards now.

Anyway, is anyone under a tornado watch now?
 
Brick Tamland said:
This is a good example of why I wish we didn't have a separate board for tropical stuff. We're talking about the storms from Bertha on both boards now.

Anyway, is anyone under a tornado watch now?
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One set of disco seems to be macro and the other more or less micro (IMBY) ... but it would be nice if all TS related discussion was in one place ... but ... heard cats? or birds?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Tomorrow looking stormy from Georgia into Charlotte NC.
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Models showed that earlier in week and many suggested it. You said you weren't buying amounts of rain this week. We have had over 2 inches in Winston again today and still have moderate to heavy rain now.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Models showed that earlier in week and many suggested it. You said you weren't buying amounts of rain this week. We have had over 2 inches in Winston again today and still have moderate to heavy rain now.
Click to expand...
Because some said a repeat of 6-12” I said no. I said 1-2” and anyone over 2” would likely be mtns. I had much better forecast than those who were calling for massive amounts and floods.
 
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