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May 2021 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Rates will overcome?
LickWx
Member
That summer was fun for storms
So did 99
Areas of light sleet .. wait hail
BHS1975
Member
In the next 60 to 90 days we will have the worst of Summer. It's not far off.
So the trendline for total 80s in May is actually ever so slightly down at RDU
Staring at it more it might be static
Staring at it more it might be static
smast16
Member
It's the airport, and there has been a lot of construction in and around that area. It's not valid to me anymore as a gauge of the area. I hit 38 8 Miles away as the crow flies.
Suck it lick 
Looks like calendar year 1977 has 19 record lows/record low maximum temperatures. That has to be the top year. It also has a record high in February, and two record high minimums in the summer.
In 2021 so far we are at three record lows and one record low maximum. Pretty good for the 21st century when we’re more often setting record highs. We are 0-fer on record highs of any kind so far (but 2020 had plenty of them, especially record high minimums).
Maybe sometime if I get bored I’ll go through and count up records by year for RDU. It would be interesting.
Shaggy
Member
It wouldn't surprise me. I hope to get through all 12 months by mid next week
MichaelJ
Member
Not at my house in Forsyth County, it was 36.8
Looks like the euro is to aggressive as usual, if I’m willing to bet, we get the dry warm sunny damming setup with low dewpoints and mid-upper 70s from this trough to our NE 
A mess...
000
FXUS64 KFWD 131906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021
...New Long Term...
Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged
active weather period consisting of widespread significant
rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy
these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those
days will be scarce during the extended forecast period.
By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place
across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present
across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing
to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday
afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap
is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and
the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s
unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or
reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep
convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas
along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the
weekend will be determining whether this convection could
organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area
later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated
this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it
appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant
moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance
eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large-
scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these
events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an
inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning
occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open
the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later
in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a
stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with
an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 131906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021
...New Long Term...
Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged
active weather period consisting of widespread significant
rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy
these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those
days will be scarce during the extended forecast period.
By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place
across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present
across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing
to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday
afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap
is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and
the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s
unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or
reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep
convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas
along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the
weekend will be determining whether this convection could
organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area
later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated
this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it
appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant
moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance
eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large-
scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these
events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an
inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning
occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open
the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later
in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a
stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with
an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.