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May 2021 Discussion Thread

superjames1992 said:
RDU reached 38 degrees on June 8, 1977. But the majority of record lows from here until the end of the month are in the 40s, and the latest RDU recorded a sub freezing low was May 10, 1977. No record low from here on out is below 35.
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What a crazy year for cold.


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superjames1992 said:
RDU hit 37 for a low last night, ANNIHILATING the old record of 40! Tomorrow morning’s record low is 39, so we’ve got another chance to, as well! We also broke the record low max temp yesterday.

GSO, meanwhile, only got down to 43! RDU FTW! Wintry capital of the Southeast!!!
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It's the airport, and there has been a lot of construction in and around that area. It's not valid to me anymore as a gauge of the area. I hit 38 8 Miles away as the crow flies.
 
BHS1975 said:
What a crazy year for cold.


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Click to expand...
Looks like calendar year 1977 has 19 record lows/record low maximum temperatures. That has to be the top year. It also has a record high in February, and two record high minimums in the summer.

In 2021 so far we are at three record lows and one record low maximum. Pretty good for the 21st century when we’re more often setting record highs. We are 0-fer on record highs of any kind so far (but 2020 had plenty of them, especially record high minimums).

Maybe sometime if I get bored I’ll go through and count up records by year for RDU. It would be interesting.
 
superjames1992 said:
RDU hit 37 for a low last night, ANNIHILATING the old record of 40! Tomorrow morning’s record low is 39, so we’ve got another chance to, as well! We also broke the record low max temp yesterday.

GSO, meanwhile, only got down to 43! RDU FTW! Wintry capital of the Southeast!!!
Click to expand...
Not at my house in Forsyth County, it was 36.8
 
Looks like the euro is to aggressive as usual, if I’m willing to bet, we get the dry warm sunny damming setup with low dewpoints and mid-upper 70s from this trough to our NE 0F79EC52-74E6-49C0-AA0C-1582D8E65A10.pngFAA88C5C-2824-4391-B3D5-DC471E2EE27B.png
 
A mess...

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131906
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...New Long Term...
Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged
active weather period consisting of widespread significant
rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy
these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those
days will be scarce during the extended forecast period.

By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place
across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present
across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing
to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday
afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap
is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and
the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s
unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or
reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep
convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas
along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the
weekend will be determining whether this convection could
organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area
later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated
this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it
appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant
moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance
eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large-
scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these
events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an
inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning
occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open
the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later
in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a
stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with
an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.
 
This is really close to going toward super amplification like the operational. If you bring the wave in the PNW southeast toward TX as a whole that changes the ridge axis and will likely allow it to bend back west and you open the door for something to try to come south down the EC or just off shore ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8 (1).png
 
That's a nasty little look on the EURO. Give it a day or two and a thread might be made =-O. Vertically stacked Low. Mid may. Negative tilt. ?. Almost on the 5 day out. Still in voodoo land at 6 and 7.
 
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