This although late would still give us a little bit of hope for something later this month??
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Jon
Member
If the weeklies didn’t bust this one we coulda had it in early feb!
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Jon
Member
Well the deep SE does have a non-zero chance at 1” of snow accums....
There’s some wild eps member on the 12z run
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There’s some wild eps member on the 12z run
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When you get 3 consecutive, major westerly wind bursts (WWBs) near the international dateline within a month like we just observed from mid January to mid February, it's only a matter of time before the tropical Pacific responds in a big way. These WWBs have a much bigger impact at this time of the year near the vernal equinox when the east-west SST & SLP slope across the equatorial Pacific is weakest as are the eastern hemisphere monsoon circulations.
While the IRI ENSO probabilities don't reflect this yet (shocker), a moderate or strong El Nino for the winter of 2019-20 is at least probable, if not likely already at this juncture.
While the IRI ENSO probabilities don't reflect this yet (shocker), a moderate or strong El Nino for the winter of 2019-20 is at least probable, if not likely already at this juncture.
Webber we dont want a strong El Nino do we ? I always thought strong El Ninos were bad for winter weather in the south.
Tarheelwx
Member
Well at least if we get a strong el nino, we should at least get plenty of moisture!
TW
TW
ajr
Member
My understanding of Ninos is we have a relatively active subtropical jet that brings in moisture from the GoM (like this past winter, honestly) - if we link that moisture tap with cold we can get big storms, but like always it's a matter of timing.
Ole JB been saying El Nino for a month now. Looks like we will never dry out
False
If the weeklies didn’t bust this one we coulda had it in early feb!
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Yeah, the EPS has shown a legit Aleutian trough/+PNA combo on other occasions this winter that didn’t verify. I expect the same this time due to the semipermanent SER fighting it.
I really am suspecting that the very warm Atlantic waters off the SE coast are not being modeled correctly, thus continually throwing off the models. I hope we can get a cooling to colder than normal Atlantic SST by this fall!
This has a shot!
That’s if it is for real, which wouldn’t be the best bet based on the last few months.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Everybody saying this was a Niño that did not act like a Niño!?The moisture sure looked like a Niño! Wettest winter on record and one of the warmest too!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah but I'm sure it'll find a way to flunk or be too dry or insignifigant. The system seems weak.
No, I mean your prediction of a cool early March along with no wintry in the entire SE has a shot for the reasons you just stated though admittedly it won’t be easy. Are you including the mountains in your no wintry prediction? That’s the tough part. Also, you predicted a warm mid month followed by cool late, all of which have a legit shot.
Per JB on today’s Sat summary, the warmup around 3/10 will be short lived and be followed by cold in the SE afterward. Any believers this time? Why should the SE get cold then? It may have something to do with the strengthening El Niño per JB.
My hope for next winter is for a legit El Niño sling with a much colder Atlantic just off the SE US. We may need to lose that ridiculous warmth there somehow some way imo. I don’t know if this is a reasonable possibility though.
My hope for next winter is for a legit El Niño sling with a much colder Atlantic just off the SE US. We may need to lose that ridiculous warmth there somehow some way imo. I don’t know if this is a reasonable possibility though.
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RollTide18
Member
You can move to banter but JB is feeling how I felt when Alabama was down 37-16 at the end of the 3rd to Clemson, I knew it was over but I kept telling myself that there will be a comeback.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm thinking no serious snow threat outside of the mountains. The mountains normally get a threat or two this time of year.
This might be our first snow free year in a whilez
Golf7575
Member
Webber, i have two questions. Overall, why didnt this winter pan out to side on cold instead of warm? What was the main issue? Was it the qbo shifting quicker than first thought? You was right on the SSW happening, but it didnt really effect the pattern much at all, despite a major SSW. Last question is what to watch for to see if next winter will be cold or warm?
tennessee storm
Member
im not webber... but what im seeing early signs for at least a moderate nino next winter... progressing into a strong nino as winter draws nearer... something to watch
packfan98
Moderator
This looks all too familiar:
Yay more rain. We might end up for mby nearly 70 inches at this rate.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not again. If we do this 3 more times I'm sure our lake will top the dam.
Probably won't be that bad but I think we will break our record if that verified.
One day we will be in an endless drought and we will be begging for a drop of rain. We just have to live with it for now. It won’t be like this forever.
MichaelJ
Member
But she is gargling as we speak
sigwx
Member
Just for fun, FV clown map
SimeonNC
Member
My area is progged to get 6-8 inches of snow, but since I'm in the LI I suspect it might be less due to mixing.
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Possibly the wettest winter some of us will ever experience. Wettest in past 100+ years.
snowlover91
Member
The wet pattern looks to continue through March with no end in sight...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ironically, the wettest winter on record in GSO (1914-15) takes the definition of a bookend winter to the very extreme w/ 3 big-solid snowstorms in mid November and the end of March into April
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No rest for the weary wrt severe weather &/or tornadoes over the coming week or two, the 12z Euro & EPS look very ominous especially this time next week and beyond with at least a pair of robust lifting troughs over the south-central plains.
Looks like it could be a busy month.
tractor girl
Member
Is there any hope of breaking out of the current pattern? Dirt contractors are having a hard time due to the weekly blasts of heavy rains.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No way to cookie cut this, the large-scale pattern is downright ominous for severe weather during the 2nd week of March for the southern Plains and Arklatex.
