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Brick Tamland
Guest
Can we get a late winter storm in the southeast? Or maybe an early start to severe season? Or will we just more and more rain? Stay tuned for the March edition of As The Weather Turns!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I expect 0 wintry chances for the entire SE. We will start cool and swing warm by mid March and end with another cool swing. Calling it now.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Too warm for snow, but the pattern will also suck for severe.
Delta Thunder
Member
Unless we get a big, upper level low with heavy, wet snow in March....It may be over. Daffodils and pear trees are in full bloom here in North Mississippi. At any rate...sustained cold does not look reasonable based on the current models.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I predict lost of rainy days with temps between 50 and 60.
Most folks are going to love the extended 12Z EPS (do I sound like a broken record or what?), although it is a bit warmer than the 0Z for 2/27-3/1 due to stronger SER/a Miller A low coming out of the Gulf 3/1 holding back the cold further NW for then. It doesn't look quite cold enough for snow for most of the SE though as usual some of NC would be close with that setup.
TOR-CON-10
Member
I'm sure we'll have non-stop Cad reports all month long. Your cad, his cad, your momma's cad, grandma's cad in 1922. About the only thing I see on this board these days is CAD. Long live the CAD.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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My great grandmas CAD was the best! Severe will be almost non-existent in the CAD areas for all of March/April, but not cold enough for snow/ice! Just look what it did to the line of storms a few days ago!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
I predict the bulk of the SE averages 1.5-3.5 AN with AN precipitation. Big mountain snow. Rain for Raleigh. Rain for Upstate SC. Lots of rain for MS, AL, GA as the cold push will not be as strong nor will the angle of cold be as favorable going into March for those guys (no more chasing anafronts) I think the big story here will be lots of cold rain for NC/SC as the transient cold air east of the mountains remains persistent, just not strong enough for wintry weather. Mostly warm days with occasional “cool” shots is the theme here
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Lol how does a map like that even happenEven your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Apparently snowed like more than 3 days straight in Roxboro and the person who made this observation ran the local newspaper (so was pretty smart) & made many snow depth obs to ensure this ob was accurate. Monster deformation band just parked right over Roxboro, Oxford, Henderson, etc. and dumped incessantly. Wake Co gradients existed even back then 6" ish close to Mcgee's Crossroads & Clayton to about 15-17" in northern Wake. Oof
The big deal about this one is it so much snow fell that it caused the collapse of the first movie theatre in the US in Washington DC (Knickerbocker Theater) & killed many inside, hence it's also more formally known as the infamous Knickerbocker Storm...
Even your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
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Just prior to this period, SAV had its worst icestorm on record from `1.25" of ZR 1/25-6. CHS also had ZR.
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Folks will love the 18Z GEFS as it is one of the coldest runs yet for the country as a whole (and for the Midwest especially) due to several Arctic highs and it also suggests Miller A action along the SE fringe of the cold from one or more lows moving from the GOM to off the SE coast. Verbatim, it shows a good sized threat for SN for a good portion of TN/NC but we know how this song and dance has gone. Hopefully, there won't be a NW trend/stronger than modeled SER to cause any storm to track well inland and thus mean mainly rain for NC/TN but we know quite well that would be quite possible. This doesn't mean areas further south couldn't also cash in because this is a nice setup in general from this far out, but obviously it would be more difficult as that isn't showing on the mean verbatim.
Remember that the 11-15 day GEFS has had a strong cold bias of some 7-8 degrees in much of the SE for many weeks averaged out. Take away 7-8 degrees and you'd have slightly warmer than normal SE. So hopefully things change this time.
Remember that the 11-15 day GEFS has had a strong cold bias of some 7-8 degrees in much of the SE for many weeks averaged out. Take away 7-8 degrees and you'd have slightly warmer than normal SE. So hopefully things change this time.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don't think the stereotypical biases here really apply at least at that range when what's actually forcing this pattern is completely different than we've seen the last several weeks and the most favorable one we've seen since the huge PV lobe crashed into the Lakes last month.
Isn’t this what JB said would happen lol @Rain Cold ?
This would completely crash the PV lobe into the US/major displacement, this is a Miller A/southern Slider pattern right here, I don’t think the gefs is to cold with this kind of look this time, question is will it hold
Damn you weren’t lying, they say consistency is key and that’s what I’m seeing, this is a good look fo sho
I’ll buy the -EPO with a weak +PNA and maybe a touch of ridging at the pole but NOT a -NAO..miss me w that bs
Yeah, I don’t want no amped up southern stream monster that would flood in WAA
Folks, the 0Z GEFS has some sections of the Midwest/N Plains a mind boggling 30 colder than normal for Mar 1-5!!! See pic below. I'm not talking just one day on an operational run but a 5 day period on an ensemble!!! Do you realize how incredible that that is even showing up and how incredible that would be? To sort of quote John Sterling, that would be the wackiest, wildest, most incredible wx pattern in history. This is not normal. If this happens, fasten your seatbelts, folks. Something crazy seems to want to occur but will it actually happen?? And by the way, there is practically no cold bias of the GEFS up there.
So, how cold would 30 below normal be at Des Moines? Oh, only 19 colder than normal for the heart of January!! I can't even wrap my head around this. I'm going to search March for past years in Des Moines and see if I can see anything even close to a 5 day period averaging 30 colder than normal:
So, how cold would 30 below normal be at Des Moines? Oh, only 19 colder than normal for the heart of January!! I can't even wrap my head around this. I'm going to search March for past years in Des Moines and see if I can see anything even close to a 5 day period averaging 30 colder than normal:
Wowzer look what the euro is spitting out this evening ... develops -NAO AND -AO On day 7 and becomes just an outright beauty of an arctic block and +PNA by day 10 and it doesn’t look like it’s budging much. Looks to be in agreement with GEFS runs the past day ... it’s about to go down folks this would be the miracle march we’ve been waiting for (Also I say we change March thread to miracle March since it is what we’re looking for and different)
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Followup to the above post: These are the 10 coldest 5 day period anomalies I've been able to find so far for Des Moines in March with the comparable period's KATL anomalies:
3/8-12/1948: -32; KATL 3/9-13/1948: -4
2/27-3/3/1962: -31; KATL 3/2-6/1962: -15 with 2 traces of SN/IP
3/3-7/1960: -29; KATL 3/3-7/1960: -25 with 2 traces of SN/IP
3/22-26/1965: -29; KATL 3/27-31/1965: -1
3/6-10/1932: -26; KATL 3/9-13/1932: -23 with 2 measurable snows (0.3"; 0.2")
3/25-29/1964: -26; KATL 3/27-31/1964: -12
3/17-21/1965: -25; KATL 3/19-23/1965: -14 with T of IP
3/14-18/1906: -24; KATL 3/17-21/1906: -17 with trace of SN/IP
3/15-19/1923: -23; KATL 3/17-21/1923: -16
3/17-21/1951: -23; KATL 3/18-22/1951: -8
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ajr
Member
6z GFS brought a nice surprise towards the end of its run -- GEFS has been hinting at around this time period (first week in March) for a chance of winter weather
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lock it in.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, we had our only storm a lot earlier than usual. Who's to say we can't have another one a lot later than usual? And that does look maaahvelous.
Yes, sort of. In your image, the trough east of HI has moved where he thought it would. The EPO ridge and NAO ridge join, as he thought. The PV moves south, and the PNA goes up. Ok, that part is in line with his thinking. The difference is the strength of the anomalies in the NAO/EPO spaces. They need to be reversed (strongest anoms near Greenland). That would press the core of the cold south into the TN Valley, suppressing the storm track and setting the SE up for a 2-3 week period of winter weather opportunities. That last part seems unlikely to happen, as we don't seem to be able to get any lasting cooperation in with the NAO. I'm still optimistic for an event or two before the winter is out. At least getting some legit front-end snow/ice seems likely to me.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So what makes a 336 hour storm so special? Not going to happen. Willing to even put money on that it won't.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I am just saying it's as likely to happen in March as it was on December 5.
Models still fighting about the MJO. The Euro (top) has done a better job than the GFS (remember when it was off the chart in phase 7??). The Euro brings it though 1 and 2 and into 3.
The EPO is tanking, as you can see by the big block near AK and the streamlines straight out of the arctic (EPS 240 hr below). Still a bit of ridging in the Atlantic and near the SE, but you can see that this pattern is MUCH better than what we're coming out of. We have some higher heights near Greenland but not enough to push the PV farther south. It's not out of the question to see a -NAO build in better over time, but we'll need to wait for some evidence for it before getting bullish on it.
We also have the Pacific typhoon recurve potential in the mix. The STJ looks to continue to remain active. The SOI daily is -43! Hopefully, all this adds up to a little magic before March is out. Our best potential, obviously, is within the first 2 weeks. I see enough evidence to be optimistic for a legitimate widespread threat or two before the clock expires. Remember, I'm already out...so this post is for all of you still in the game.
The EPO is tanking, as you can see by the big block near AK and the streamlines straight out of the arctic (EPS 240 hr below). Still a bit of ridging in the Atlantic and near the SE, but you can see that this pattern is MUCH better than what we're coming out of. We have some higher heights near Greenland but not enough to push the PV farther south. It's not out of the question to see a -NAO build in better over time, but we'll need to wait for some evidence for it before getting bullish on it.
We also have the Pacific typhoon recurve potential in the mix. The STJ looks to continue to remain active. The SOI daily is -43! Hopefully, all this adds up to a little magic before March is out. Our best potential, obviously, is within the first 2 weeks. I see enough evidence to be optimistic for a legitimate widespread threat or two before the clock expires. Remember, I'm already out...so this post is for all of you still in the game.
12z gefs is still decent, still we need quite a bit more ridging around Greenland for a stronger PV lobe displacement, PNA has looked more nuetral/weaker + with these past runs, need to stop that trend, this is a pattern we can still work with but it could be much better than this, this looks pretty similar to the EPS @Rain Cold posted above 
SOI in the tank also. That will have some impact at some point as well.
Good post. Would definitely like to see the PNA ridge go up, but I think the STJ is a bit too active for it to happen. You can see the split very nicely out in the Pacific in the image you posted. The EPO will inject cold into the pattern. Good. The STJ is active. Good (this, IMO, offsets the PNA issue, given the progged pattern, simply because it means regular storm chances). The NAO is negative, but nowhere close to ideal. If we can firm that up in conjunction with the big EPO block, and if the EPO can stay in place, we'll be cooking with gas.
In my view, our opportunity for a real SE winter storm comes between 240 - 300 hours. Assuming the EPO block is real, high pressure will track across the northern tier. With a decent snow pack to our north, cold air should be able to be more easily transported into the area. Here is the GFS 288 H500 map. EPO doing work. STJ rocking. PV in SE Canada. You can see areas of high pressure rotating across the north. Now, they are transitory, given that there is no confluence for anchoring. But other stuff about the pattern aint too bad.
The threat begins to take shape in this time frame:
Down the line (not shown), we get a Miller B. Fits the pattern. Now, I don't expect the model to have this even remotely exact. But if the big EPO block verifies, this is the right time frame for a winter storm. And IF we can anchor that PV for more than a day or two (I'm looking at you -NAO), we'll have a bigger window and it will stay open longer.
Last night's, Euro is similar, but not as robust. Who knows how it will evolve after D10. We'll see what today's has in a few.
FWIW, the FV3 does have a big time Greenland block at the end. But we've seen that before. And the rest of the pattern looks wonky (and by wonky I mean weird and unfavorable).
Anyway, I favor the 10-13 day period for a winter storm for at least some portion of the SE. That doesn't mean we can't sneak something in sooner. It's just that the right confluence of variables converge during that time period, which gives me slightly more than low confidence.
dsaur
Member
And the contrarian winters of the deep south continue. I've got more rain than the great northwest, and not a bit of cold to welcome it. Sometimes I get all the cold the far north can offer, but dry as the Atacama. Winters without winter would suck even worse, but for the rain. I love rain. I'd much rather the flood than the drought, but, come on, some deep cold at least once this winter! I get rain everyday now....sometimes twice a day, rain wrapped up in rain. Rain, within rain, within rain...all mystical and spooky. A low of 24, on two different occasions is embarrassing. Old man winter has gotten wussified, and it's pitiful. 46 right now with, wait for it....more rain right on my door step. Whatever happened to 33 and rain?? At least you could call that winter....this ship here is just fall, or spring. March better, buck up and fly right!!!