Ukmet?
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GEPS took a step in the wrong direction, it’s basically the gfs/gefs vs the euro/GEPS/fv3/ICON atm
Cad Wedge NC
Member
We know how this story ends..... Can the GFS score one ... for once? We'll see.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I could really care less what the Canadian Ensemble says, of the big 3 suites available on TT, the GEPS is the worst one by a country mile 90-95%+ of the time.
The EPS is still going in the right direction for now anyways.
Gfs still says NC gets coating to an inch with coastal and Fv3 still surprised with cold bias
Gefs a tad more impressive
packfan98
Moderator
Does the Euro put out any precipitation in NC like the GFS suite shows?
No, light precip in central GA.
More good trends overnight. We continue to move in the right direction, but the clock is ticking. I think if we're gonna see something out of this storm, it'll be evident by 12z/18z tomorrow. How late did that NE storm come into the forecast?
Jon
Member
The most recent one that just happened overnight started large NW jump inside 84 hours
The one for 3/4 started wholesale change at 120-136hr
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NAM says whiffffffftttt
Tick tock..... we need a jump for the better in the next few runs imo. NAM is on the edge of its range, if that means anything
It’s possible aswell that the NAMs dry bias is affecting this, we’ll see in the next 48 hours
Gfs is probably gonna lose that batch of precipitation it’s had for the past 3 runs, just saying
Don’t know why it would with all the ensemble support but we will see
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The long range NAM is about as reliable as the farmer alamanac’s daily and weekly forecasts over a year in advance
What gets me is the little pockets of cold and snowy in the middle of a widespread warm/rain lol, makes no sense ?
I’m just not trying to scare off this storm with my optimism, negativity is key
System that’s gonna give the NE more snow has trended a tad more amped so far with 12z guidance
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. Not near as much for them, too warm there.
We can go from woof to poof in 6 hrs, but can't go from poof to woof in 6 days! Just the way it's been this year.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Lee side enhancement looks even better this run!!
snowlover91
Member
Not a bad run at all, I’m also a bit surprised the qpf wasn’t a bit better.
Fv3 has slightly better look and more flurries and the cmc was a whiff but looks to have some fun with the next storm
Also whether it amps or not can effect our storm, but see my negativity keep things going ??
Jon
Member
Not buying the GFS accums with this look.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Of course it would rarely be wise to do that but the GFS has boundary layer issues, in particular I’ve seen so many cases like that which ended up busting where the lowest part of the sounding on the GFS within a km or so of the ground is erroneously dry.Not buying the GFS accums with this look.
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Don't think I'm gonna see anything out of this. Timing isn't right. Still has been kinda fun to track, maybe it'll pull off a miracle
Since this discussion thread has gone from pattern, to a flizzard watch, here is a thread for the system: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/march-05-06th-2019-wintry-weather.540/
I think we need to be looking out for a big storm down the road into this weekend and early next week... most of the GEFS members has a fairly significant storm whether it be a CAD winter storm to a flooding situation to a possible severe weather threat ... all options on the table and even a big coastal on the table .. time to track
NCCWOP9077
Member
Not a bad signal for maybe some light snow in NC 12z GFS ensembles early next week.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol it's funny how this winter is waiting until at least mid March to produce a legitimate +PNA & deep GOA/Aleutian low couplet. That woulda been nice in January or February...
Smdh
Smdh