The GEFS and EPS runs have been suggesting a shortlived (~4 days) cold period in the SE for 3/12-15 within an otherwise mild first half of March.
Here is the Arctic air as it approaches:
Here is the peak of the cold a day later:
Will this verify or will it be a fail like the predicted intense cold for 2/28-3/2?
The MJO has improved with all progs inside the circle vs earlier progs for warm phases outside the circle in phase 5-6. So, that at least shouldn’t be a negative factor for the shortlived cold. Also, the GEFS AO forecasts have come down markedly for that period and instead of the positive of 2/28-3/2 are favoring slight -AO for 3/12-15:
However, a moderate +NAO is still being forecasted for 3/12-15, similar to 2/28-3/2:
And there’s a moderate to strong -PNA for the 3/12-15 per the GEFS, which will likely prevent a longlasting cold period in the SE assuming it actually gets cold:
So, it will be interesting to see if we can get that several day cold period ~3/12-15. If we can, this could very well be the last shot at a freeze, especially in places south of TN and NC.
really don’t like what we’re dealing with here, very impressive signal for a anomalous trough which probably means some very impressive kinematics 
the 00z euro already had a pretty solid setup, really interesting to see the 12z euro, might need a thread if the GFS makes one more shift like it did at 06z and we continue to get consistency for a day or 2 on the euro 
