I’m gonna go ahead and start this and hope i
Jinx this but these looks support severe wx
Jinx this but these looks support severe wx
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Severe March 25-27th possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Supercell composites from single ensemble members
pcbjr
Member
They'll get it right before any snow ensemble ever gets close ...
pcbjr
Member
I didn’t mean it that way I meant I hope to jinx the threat away so there’s no impact, I never hope for any sort of severe wx now
pcbjr
Member
Was making more of a global comment aimed across the board ... and I personally do appreciate your reply, input and overall dedication ...
Was making more of a global comment aimed across the board ... and I personally do appreciate your reply, input and overall dedication ...
I’m gonna be honest, I use to look forward to severe wx until April 2011 then over time kinda looked forward to it again but then that rotation last year that passed over my area and ended up hitting GSO scared the crap outa me, it wasn’t even that strong but the wind and rain really spooked me, I actually felt fear right there, never gonna forget it, I got lucky it didn’t hit my house becuase it cycled and gained strength and ended up hitting Greensboro as a EF2
tennessee storm
Member
Storm chaser like me like severe... I am big fan of severe ... starting studying severe when I was really young age... but never wish direct hit ... this spring looks like a violent one shaping up for what I’m seeing down the road
pcbjr
Member
You are honest, and that's golden ... but if someone gets hit, and since you are a big fan, maybe you'll go help out ... and maybe once you see a corpse or two, the idea may change ... just sayin' in a very friendly way ...
You never wish for a direct hit, but what about your neighbors? Life is typically already difficult without severe wx impacting someone. And this has nothing to do with wishing for it making it more likely because that obviously doesn't. What it does have to do with is that it sounds cold to openly wish for it at all since you're openly wishing for something whose mere existence increases the chance for casualties and damage.
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If i want any sort of thunderstorms, it’s your average summer storms, some have nice shelfies with them and 90% of the time no shear to spin things up, just a cool outflow then a cooling barrage of rain drops to cool down the day and keep the grass green
Actually, it would be fair to also say wishing for just about any kind of wx such as wintry precip and cold is cold since those can lead to damage and casualties, themselves, even though not violent and not nearly the most dangerous. Even if not, they can lead to inconvenience/discomfort/higher heating bills. Therefore, since I don’t hide my wanting those, I could be said to be equally guilty/a bit of a hypocrite.
Fair enough. This can be tricky. Therefore, I probably would be best to say no more about this even though I don’t root for severe.
Fair enough. This can be tricky. Therefore, I probably would be best to say no more about this even though I don’t root for severe.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
There are ways to stay warm, even in a bad ice storm; but with severe (or a 'Cane) it's the instantaneous and largley unanticipated immediacy of a child not seeing dad, or vice versa, ever again in a split second, or a mom holding a badly injured elderly parent, or you paint the picture in a flash of an eye, that causes concern when someone "wants" severe ...
Phil
I don't know, Phil. This can be slippery, no pun intended. Like you, I really hate it when someone openly roots for severe/hurricanes. It really sounds awful and quite selfish. But what about, for example, a traffic accident on an icy road that can immediately take the lives of a mom, dad, child, or whomever? Or what about a big ice-ladened tree limb coming down on someone and killing them?
I think we have to be careful about what we say if we don't want to be called hyprocrites to some extent, especially since I don't think either of us is going to stop rooting for wintry/cold.
**Edited for tree limb.
**This part of the discussion may need to be moved to banter.
Safest weather is a sunny 70 degree day, simple
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
One can drive safely or decide it's better not to drive; one cannot sit in a house and safely waive away an F-2; I see that as the difference ...
I largely agree with you, believe me, and I’m admittedly getting kind of technical. But what about an ice-ladened tree that comes crashing through a roof or someone driving from elsewhere where it is just a cold rain unknowingly into where the plain rain becomes ZR?
gawxnative
Member
Well IMO, Severe is the hardest to avoid injury or death from. Even with the April 27, 2011 outbreak being forecast far in advance, it is so often the "meso influences" that determines where the worst will be. Also, again IMO, there is virtually no reason for deaths in the USA as a direct result of Tropical systems in coastal areas. Forecast well in advance, notifications go out, and folks have the opportunity to "get out of the way"..
pcbjr
Member
Then I guess God called him or her ... and I suppose you can say that for severe, but I'm rooting for neither ... best I can say ... Phil
pcbjr
Member
some decide to stay in areas when they have a considerable amount of time to evacuate, that’s then puts emergency response teams in danger as they come back to those areas as people ignored, I hate how people said Florence was over hyped, but when you quickly corrected them like for example the flooding in coastal areas, they instead just insulted you or stuff like that, ok I’ll stop, this deserves to be in banter as this is a thread for a upcoming threat
Thats the way I see it. I enjoy tracking all kinds of weather, whatever it is and the more extreme the more interesting. If some see it as cold and heartless and judge me as such, it it what it is. No sense in being a hypocrite and denying it.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Well, I will never choose to reside in Moore Oklahoma or anywhere else in Tornado Alley. However, I would love to live in Alaska .... each are dangerous just different kinds of danger.
I largely agree about coastal residents except please don’t forget that there are traffic accidents due to evacuations, themselves. I’m getting technical again but that is true.
Of course, there is also plenty of inland damage as well as casualties from flooding and high winds of tropical cyclones.
So far this thread looks like a fail, which is a good thing, ICON looks nasty tho
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Anybody see severe weather being a possibility from this? Low pressure seems to be in ideal place for southeastern severe weather. Although a lot will probaly change from now to then.
tennessee storm
Member
A lot depends on quality of return moisture .... one thing ....worth watching for areas along the central gulf states ...
CMC would be concerning, not negatively tilted but this would definitely support severe wx in areas with good CAPE 
Good LLVL jet and CAPE overlap (assuming based of temps and DPs, since there no CAPE for the cmc on tidbits) and that position of the low pressure is a bit worrying, but again, we’re trying to figure out whether this is a winter event or this, I’m going with in between and maybe some severe wx in far southern areas based off our luck in 2019 
snowlover91
Member
Yep and if the ICON/CMC are correct there still may be a severe threat here. It all depends on the timing and strength of the energy as to whether this system cuts or gets suppressed to the south (along with blocking). If we somehow get a snow/winter event out of this then I vote that Myfrotho704 starts more "severe" threads in hopes they also bring some wintry weather
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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I wanted to see a tornado from a distance, not in my backyard and weirdly enough, last day of November!
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Euro has a closed low 
while the gfs has a broad area of low pressure
euro has the look of a decent severe risk but models are flip flopping and not to consistent yet.
while the gfs has a broad area of low pressureeuro has the look of a decent severe risk but models are flip flopping and not to consistent yet.
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Z
Zander98al
Guest
The nws of bham is siding with the euro in this for now. Waiting to see how the 12z euro goes on this event.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Looks to be, too many weather model differences right now though to say something for sure. Id say give it a day or two and will probaly have a good idea at what happens.
I’ve so far jinxed this one, so ima look at the one after, it actually has some support tho, gfs shows similar setup, hopefully we can avoid this one aswell
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I wouldnt give up on this upcoming one yet, waiting to see what the close range models say if the low pressure can stay closed and not broad like the gfs and 12z euro kinda has then moisture influx will probabky be decent and shear will be good as well.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Euro at around 7 o'clock. Not that impressive of a low but itll provide some shear. These severe weather events this season have had a knack for some bad storms so itll be something to watch.
