This is not really a threat for most here.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe March 25-27th possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Always a good thing
Sure this verbatim would be a threat for the plains but this has to be watched, has support and there isn’t a big block around Newfoundland to change things up crazily this time, even with a weaker trough on the euro wind energy is still pretty high, supportive of supercells, maybe this threat can vanish aswell but this one I have more confidence in happening as like I said there isn’t much of a block/confluence from around Newfoundland interfering
Last edited:
H5 looks ripe for severe WX with this look in the plains, GFS has a cuttoff Low/ULL, positivity tilted, while the FV3 has a more broad positively tilted trough, this is probably why sfc dews is lacking a bit on these models as a negatively tilted trough often pulls in much better sfc moisture leading to a better chance for tornadoes vs a positively tilted trough, some models try to eliminate instability as the low progresses west
And for fun the gfs has a really nasty setup at the end of its run, thank goodness it’s the 384 hour gfs
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Looks to be a little activity tomorrow slight risk, large hail looks to be main risk.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
From the long range HRRR there looks to be pockets of SRH helicity around 300-350 in south alabama if one of these low topped supercells form and gets in with that there may be a spin up tornado or two. But overall wind fields dont look too impressive.
i Didn’t make this thread for no reason I guess
Needa watch for a slim chance of a spin up tornado tommorow, otherwise probably more of a organized Multicell cluster/s looks more likely, Dominant threat is a Gusty/damaging wind threat due to dry air entrainment at mid levels and some weak wind energy aloft translating to the surface, also small hail due to low freezing levels/low wet bulb levels and dry air aloft along with a little bit of CAPE in the HGZ 
DustinWx
Moderator
Spc says slight risk is possible
Z
Zander98al
Guest
From the 18z HRRR id say a slight risk will probably run from atlanta to southern mississippi into south alabama by the look of things. HRRR is putting around 1500 surface cape in places. Have to watch for any outflow boundaries from the mcs which might aid in wind shear.FFC says 2+ inch hail possible in west-central GA and metro Atlanta tomorrow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So if the tornado chances were somewhat accurate from the HRRRE some time back, then maybe this could test the hail chance of the same model. Seems reasonable though S MS looks to be more in on the action on the actual HRRR.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Oh shii just saw this sounding out of MS, perfect sounding for hail, decently large HGZ, dry air aloft helping to prevent melting, steep low/mid level lapse rates, low wet bulb. Also a nice sounding for damaging winds with increased DCAPE, dry air entrainment 
It is interesting that the parameters for this event continue to trend upward as we get closer in.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
The mcs early in the morning will play a role in this. If a outflow boundary comes from this and sets somewhere in central or south alabama, won't be good.
Here a easier sounding breakdown if you want to know more about large hail and the environment it requires, also one in the learning thread, just trying to help out, but dang that’s some decent CAPE in the hail growth region ! Maybe some #gorillahail ?