Severe March 25-27th possible severe weather

[Myfrotho704_]

Well IMO, Severe is the hardest to avoid injury or death from. Even with the April 27, 2011 outbreak being forecast far in advance, it is so often the "meso influences" that determines where the worst will be. Also, again IMO, there is virtually no reason for deaths in the USA as a direct result of Tropical systems in coastal areas. Forecast well in advance, notifications go out, and folks have the opportunity to "get out of the way"..

some decide to stay in areas when they have a considerable amount of time to evacuate, that’s then puts emergency response teams in danger as they come back to those areas as people ignored, I hate how people said Florence was over hyped, but when you quickly corrected them like for example the flooding in coastal areas, they instead just insulted you or stuff like that, ok I’ll stop, this deserves to be in banter as this is a thread for a upcoming threat

 

[Arcc]

Actually, it would be fair to also say wishing for just about any kind of wx such as wintry precip and cold is cold since those can lead to damage and casualties, themselves, even though not violent and not nearly the most dangerous. Even if not, they can lead to inconvenience/discomfort/higher heating bills. Therefore, since I don’t hide my wanting those, I could be said to be equally guilty/a bit of a hypocrite.
Fair enough. This can be tricky. Therefore, I probably would be best to say no more about this even though I don’t root for severe.

Thats the way I see it. I enjoy tracking all kinds of weather, whatever it is and the more extreme the more interesting. If some see it as cold and heartless and judge me as such, it it what it is. No sense in being a hypocrite and denying it.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Larry,
One can drive safely or decide it's better not to drive; one cannot sit in a house and safely waive away an F-2; I see that as the difference ...

Well, I will never choose to reside in Moore Oklahoma or anywhere else in Tornado Alley. However, I would love to live in Alaska .... each are dangerous just different kinds of danger.

 

[GaWx]

Well IMO, Severe is the hardest to avoid injury or death from. Even with the April 27, 2011 outbreak being forecast far in advance, it is so often the "meso influences" that determines where the worst will be. Also, again IMO, there is virtually no reason for deaths in the USA as a direct result of Tropical systems in coastal areas. Forecast well in advance, notifications go out, and folks have the opportunity to "get out of the way"..

I largely agree about coastal residents except please don’t forget that there are traffic accidents due to evacuations, themselves. I’m getting technical again but that is true.

Of course, there is also plenty of inland damage as well as casualties from flooding and high winds of tropical cyclones.

 

[Rick]

How's this threat looking?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How's this threat looking?

So far this thread looks like a fail, which is a good thing, ICON looks nasty tho

 

[Zander98al]

Anybody see severe weather being a possibility from this? Low pressure seems to be in ideal place for southeastern severe weather. Although a lot will probaly change from now to then.

 

[tennessee storm]

Anybody see severe weather being a possibility from this? Low pressure seems to be in ideal place for southeastern severe weather. Although a lot will probaly change from now to then.
View attachment 17883

A lot depends on quality of return moisture .... one thing ....worth watching for areas along the central gulf states ...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC would be concerning, not negatively tilted but this would definitely support severe wx in areas with good CAPE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Good LLVL jet and CAPE overlap (assuming based of temps and DPs, since there no CAPE for the cmc on tidbits) and that position of the low pressure is a bit worrying, but again, we’re trying to figure out whether this is a winter event or this, I’m going with in between and maybe some severe wx in far southern areas based off our luck in 2019

 

[GaWx]

I say we keep this thread even if it turns into more of a wintry threat. It would be most interesting to see the thread discussion change from severe to wintry should it do so.

 

[snowlover91]

I say we keep this thread even if it turns into more of a wintry threat. It would be most interesting to see the thread discussion change from severe to wintry should it do so.

Yep and if the ICON/CMC are correct there still may be a severe threat here. It all depends on the timing and strength of the energy as to whether this system cuts or gets suppressed to the south (along with blocking). If we somehow get a snow/winter event out of this then I vote that Myfrotho704 starts more "severe" threads in hopes they also bring some wintry weather

 

[Tarheel1]

You never wish for a direct hit, but what about your neighbors? Life is typically already difficult without severe wx impacting someone. And this has nothing to do with wishing for it making it more likely because that obviously doesn't. What it does have to do with is that it sounds cold to openly wish for it at all since you're openly wishing for something whose mere existence increases the chance for casualties and damage.

I wanted to see a tornado from a distance, not in my backyard and weirdly enough, last day of November!

 

[Zander98al]

Euro has a closed low while the gfs has a broad area of low pressureeuro has the look of a decent severe risk but models are flip flopping and not to consistent yet.

 

[Zander98al]

The nws of bham is siding with the euro in this for now. Waiting to see how the 12z euro goes on this event.

 

[Rick]

Still a threat of severe?

 

[Zander98al]

Still a threat of severe?

Looks to be, too many weather model differences right now though to say something for sure. Id say give it a day or two and will probaly have a good idea at what happens.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ve so far jinxed this one, so ima look at the one after, it actually has some support tho, gfs shows similar setup, hopefully we can avoid this one aswell

 

[Zander98al]

I’ve so far jinxed this one, so ima look at the one after, it actually has some support tho, gfs shows similar setup, hopefully we can avoid this one

I’ve so far jinxed this one, so ima look at the one after, it actually has some support tho, gfs shows similar setup, hopefully we can avoid this one aswell
View attachment 17926

I wouldnt give up on this upcoming one yet, waiting to see what the close range models say if the low pressure can stay closed and not broad like the gfs and 12z euro kinda has then moisture influx will probabky be decent and shear will be good as well.

 

[Zander98al]

Euro at around 7 o'clock. Not that impressive of a low but itll provide some shear. These severe weather events this season have had a knack for some bad storms so itll be something to watch.