This is not really a threat for most here.
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Severe March 25-27th possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Always a good thing
Sure this verbatim would be a threat for the plains but this has to be watched, has support and there isn’t a big block around Newfoundland to change things up crazily this time, even with a weaker trough on the euro wind energy is still pretty high, supportive of supercells, maybe this threat can vanish aswell but this one I have more confidence in happening as like I said there isn’t much of a block/confluence from around Newfoundland interfering
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H5 looks ripe for severe WX with this look in the plains, GFS has a cuttoff Low/ULL, positivity tilted, while the FV3 has a more broad positively tilted trough, this is probably why sfc dews is lacking a bit on these models as a negatively tilted trough often pulls in much better sfc moisture leading to a better chance for tornadoes vs a positively tilted trough, some models try to eliminate instability as the low progresses west
And for fun the gfs has a really nasty setup at the end of its run, thank goodness it’s the 384 hour gfs
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Zander98al
Guest
Looks to be a little activity tomorrow slight risk, large hail looks to be main risk.
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Zander98al
Guest
From the long range HRRR there looks to be pockets of SRH helicity around 300-350 in south alabama if one of these low topped supercells form and gets in with that there may be a spin up tornado or two. But overall wind fields dont look too impressive.
i Didn’t make this thread for no reason I guess
Needa watch for a slim chance of a spin up tornado tommorow, otherwise probably more of a organized Multicell cluster/s looks more likely, Dominant threat is a Gusty/damaging wind threat due to dry air entrainment at mid levels and some weak wind energy aloft translating to the surface, also small hail due to low freezing levels/low wet bulb levels and dry air aloft along with a little bit of CAPE in the HGZ 
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Zander98al
Guest
From the 18z HRRR id say a slight risk will probably run from atlanta to southern mississippi into south alabama by the look of things. HRRR is putting around 1500 surface cape in places. Have to watch for any outflow boundaries from the mcs which might aid in wind shear.BufordWX
Member
FFC says 2+ inch hail possible in west-central GA and metro Atlanta tomorrow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So if the tornado chances were somewhat accurate from the HRRRE some time back, then maybe this could test the hail chance of the same model. Seems reasonable though S MS looks to be more in on the action on the actual HRRR.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Oh shii just saw this sounding out of MS, perfect sounding for hail, decently large HGZ, dry air aloft helping to prevent melting, steep low/mid level lapse rates, low wet bulb. Also a nice sounding for damaging winds with increased DCAPE, dry air entrainment 
It is interesting that the parameters for this event continue to trend upward as we get closer in.
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Zander98al
Guest
The mcs early in the morning will play a role in this. If a outflow boundary comes from this and sets somewhere in central or south alabama, won't be good.
Here a easier sounding breakdown if you want to know more about large hail and the environment it requires, also one in the learning thread, just trying to help out, but dang that’s some decent CAPE in the hail growth region ! Maybe some #gorillahail ?
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Zander98al
Guest
Cloud cover forecasts show the clouds going away after the mcs goes through and the sun comes out so itll probably feel like a jungle out there with humidity.
just constant hail reports today, a lot of these reports have been accumulating pea sized hail, somebody tommorow may get accumulating hail of that magnitude and call it a winter, lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol if that's the only white I see it'll maybe bring... oh wait, it's spring. It'll be cool to see a lot of pea sized hail on the ground accumulated if it happens.
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Zander98al
Guest
Would that temperature contrast be the warm front??
H A I L
anyways for areas in nc/sc reason why CAPE diminishes is becuase of DP mixing, which is a CAPE killer, areas farther south will have better lift/moisture/instability but hrrr tries to get some activity off the lee side off the mountains for nc/sc, if this day had more wind energy it would definitely be more concerning
anyways for areas in nc/sc reason why CAPE diminishes is becuase of DP mixing, which is a CAPE killer, areas farther south will have better lift/moisture/instability but hrrr tries to get some activity off the lee side off the mountains for nc/sc, if this day had more wind energy it would definitely be more concerning
Kinda, its more of a warm front separating rain cooled air and warm untapped air
Tommorow is gonna be a interesting day based off the 3KM NAM , for MS/AL/ central-southern GA soundings are more supportive of hail/gusty winds with steep mid level lapse rates, better instability and higher sfc moisture along with dry air entrainment aloft, in northern GA/SC/NC we got weird soundings, thunderstorms with higher bases due to higher LFC(s)/LCL(s) and in a enviroment with larger inverted Vs, very skinny CAPE, it’s actually what you would expect with drier microbursts altho the DP/sfc temp depression is not that big, still 19-20 degrees is decent which is probably why the NAM tries to show that outflow boundary, possibly a damaging wind threat if temps heat up and cloud cover stays away
BufordWX
Member
SPC day 1 slight risk for West GA and Central AL.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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SIM radar looks pretty crazy around here even , this afternoon!? Local mets saying rain showers and a rumble of thunder possibly! I know it’s worse to my west over GA / AL , but interested in watching this afternoon! Havnt had a good T storm since January!?
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Zander98al
Guest
HRRR has a few pockets of high SRH helicity around the cell at birmingham i wonder if one of these cells will spin up. Spc has a 2% risk for a tornado. But always expect a few suprises, especially with last severe weather event that hit south alabama. May have some large hail in it as well.
BufordWX
Member
Storms should start firing up in the next few hours. Gonna be interesting to see how things unfold this afternoon.
HSVweather
Member
Storms popping in southern TN
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Zander98al
Guest
Lapse rate forecasts are pretty decent for storm development, and all this sunshine is adding to the fuel.
Pretty significant clearing is trying to move in. Should hopefully bode well for later.
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Zander98al
Guest
Well so much for that.
By the time the clearing line got here, after about 15 minutes, it filled in with a stratocumulus field.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Significant clearing in ATL
Refela
Member
SPC discussing severe thunderstorm watch for North and part of Central Alabama. 40 per cent probability.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Can we not. Note that this shifts from far E TN about 30 miles NE of Chattanooga to north of Athens, GA before the threat diminishes.
