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Severe March 1st Severe Weather Threat

Lord

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I wonder if that line in Missouri will be able to make it all the way to the mid Atlantic coast tomorrow afternoon

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Tornado warning in TN now to the west of Clarksville and its showing strong rotation, moved into KY now.
 
SD said:
Thoughts for our area tomorrow night? Looks like the 4k nam has gotten a little more favorable for severe and maybe a tornado.

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Yeah, I think overall the threat will be lower here tomorrow w/ most of the attendant forcing pulling well to our north and there's appreciable uncertainty regarding the longevity and intensity of this complex of storms as it passes the mountains. Obviously, the squall line could either disintegrate completely or the mountains may disrupt it just enough to allow for more discrete storms to briefly evolve yet again in their wake which is what I'm a little concerned about aside from the fact that this will be moving through during the early-mid overnight hours when most are asleep at least in eastern-central NC. The 4km NAM has progressively been slowing down the timing of the squall line in the Carolinas and is starting to push it back after midnight... Until we actually see how these storms look after crossing the apps and/or are able to sample the environment out ahead of them tomorrow and compare w/ high resolution guidance, not a whole lot more information we can glean other than the fact that the primary impact will be from damaging winds in excess of 60-70 mph, and one or two isolated tornadoes embedded within possible bookend vortices along the squall line

Last 4 runs of the 4km NAM....
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Btw, in case anyone missed it, check out this insane video of one of the earlier storms near Washburn, IL. Incredible!
 
Definitely not often you're able to get velocity data on a tornado a few hundred feet off the ground w/o the radar site breaking of course, lol
 
The supercell currently over southwestern Indiana has traveled ~ 400 miles in the past 7-8 hours or so from south-central MO through southern IL, and into southwestern IN.
 
This is honestly one of the longest lived supercells i've ever seen. It actually formed over eastern OK earlier today and has tracked all the way to now SW IN and most guidance holds it together right through a decent portion of Ohio. Wtf
 
12z HRRR sounding for RDU @ 8pm this evening for storms hit... Not bad, definitely a decent looking hodograph and some low level shear to support an isolated tornado or two.
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HRRR brings the storms to RDU by ~ 9pm
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Webber, SD for most of us east of the Apps the tor threat should be extremely low correct (maybe a quick spin up along the line) but if any discrete cells can pop out front of that line environment appears a little more favorable for a possible tor.... am I correct in what I'm seeing? Thanks
 
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