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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Webberweather53 said:
In saying this, the diurnal timing looks pretty close to ideal for tornadoes in places like the Triangle as the storms should be arriving around sunset give or take an hr ish
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Even if we don't get any real clearing before then?
 
Cadi40 said:
I'm thinking the counties that lie between I-85 and I-95 will be faced with the most intense conditions, as now until 7 PM would be considered peak heating.
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Yeah in terms of the storms themselves they'll reach peak intensity just after peak heating today, but it's a little later still when the tornado threat tends to be the highest in situations like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You definitely don't want storms like this near or just after sunset, that's when your tornado threat will tend to be highest as they've had the most time to mature & the low-level jet is intensifying.
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Mhx seems.to suggest the cap is only breaking just south of us and that new storms should fire soon.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM...Still an enhanced risk for severe weather later this afternoon and through the evening hours for eastern North Carolina as low pressure still centered over the Mississippi Valley brings a cold front through the Carolinas this afternoon and evening. While kinematics remain strong with plenty of low level shear in play, instability continues to be the lingering question. Latest data from an 18z supplemental sounding shows CAPE values around 2000 J/KG as temperatures have risen well into the 70s especially in the southwestern counties where capping will begin to erode and convective initiation should begin over the next couple of hours. Low level lapse rates starting to come in over 7 deg/km support this.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Areas affected...northern South Carolina into central North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...

Valid 181910Z - 182145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop east/northeast across the
watch area, and a new watch could be needed into central North
Carolina later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells continues to progress east into
northwestern SC, near the surface trough and along and north of the
warm front. Surface analysis shows warming and destabilization
continues south of this front, and this should allow these storms to
persist and perhaps expand in coverage. The greatest severe risk
appears to be along the warm front, where storms will experience
enhanced lift. Strong deep-layer shear as well as effective SRH of
200-300 m2/s2 will favor supercells at times, with a threat of a
brief tornado or damaging gusts. If storm trends continue up over
the next few hours, an additional watch could be needed downstream
into NC.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2021


mcd0224.gif
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Interesting. That language seems pretty subdued. "Threat of a brief tornado or damaging gust."
 
Webberweather53 said:
You definitely don't want storms like this near or just after sunset, that's when your tornado threat will tend to be highest as they've had the most time to mature & the low-level jet is intensifying.
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Well that sucks....

Shaggy said:
Mhx seems.to suggest the cap is only breaking just south of us and that new storms should fire soon.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM...Still an enhanced risk for severe weather later this afternoon and through the evening hours for eastern North Carolina as low pressure still centered over the Mississippi Valley brings a cold front through the Carolinas this afternoon and evening. While kinematics remain strong with plenty of low level shear in play, instability continues to be the lingering question. Latest data from an 18z supplemental sounding shows CAPE values around 2000 J/KG as temperatures have risen well into the 70s especially in the southwestern counties where capping will begin to erode and convective initiation should begin over the next couple of hours. Low level lapse rates starting to come in over 7 deg/km support this.
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I was wondering that its 79/66 and some sun appears likely as the bigger breaks are close...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t like these View attachment 79672
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That storm around Jonesville is definitely concerning, the southern cell I thought would be the big dog is struggling more than I thought, may not be close enough to the mesolow to experience sufficient synoptic-mesoscale forcing for ascent to keep itself going
 
HRRR is finally catching onto these storms near Charlotte & brings them near-just north of RDU later this evening. Also showing more storms firing along this line further south towards Fayetteville
 
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