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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

DadOfJax said:
This was absolutely a nothing burger.....hence the removal of all mention of tornados in central and north Alabama. The South Alabama threat was legit, and it was pretty much nothing as well. I said exactly what would happen for 2 days, and it did. Could I have been wrong, absolutely, but it seemed pretty clear for the last 18 hours that the HRRR was off its rocker. Better luck next time ;)
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Lol you were wrong it was a nothing burger in the south and you said it was legit ?. The 2nd wave was in question from the get go and so was the 1st until the HRRR got in range.
 
Natedogg25 said:

US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama​



(Mar 18th @ 235PM) We're still watching and waiting to see how much redevelopment we'll see this afternoon. Right now, just a couple small showers in the southwest counties.
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Atmosphere's pretty worked over, and the flow has gone veered (disrupting moisture transport and leading to poor convergence). So I have my doubts much will happen.
 
Now if you could only get some storms to form. Latest SCP.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
DadOfJax said:
This was absolutely a nothing burger.....hence the removal of all mention of tornados in central and north Alabama. The South Alabama threat was legit, and it was pretty much nothing as well. I said exactly what would happen for 2 days, and it did. Could I have been wrong, absolutely, but it seemed pretty clear for the last 18 hours that the HRRR was off its rocker. Better luck next time ;)
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Not to be ugly or anything, but you really need to start posting analysis of models and soundings to back up posts like this.
 
Arcc said:
Not to be ugly or anything, but you really need to start posting analysis of models and soundings to back up posts like this.
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Put in banter if need be, but DOJ, gets his kicks off naysaying everything people want to happen or like, and nuts when what the majority wants, doesn’t happen! We’ve got a name for people like him, fartknocker
 
HSVweather said:
Now the one just north of Red Bay looks healthy too. No lightning yet though
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I've always associated lighting as a indicator of surface based. But I don't think it really means it is lol. A few healthy cells popping up. I wonder if a tornado watch will be issued soon
 
Zander98al said:
I've always associated lighting as a indicator of surface based. But I don't think it really means it is lol. A few healthy cells popping up. I wonder if a tornado watch will be issued soon
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I don’t think they will on a watch. A few storms could ramp up to severe limits with hail maybe.
 
Zander98al said:
Lol I didn't do doomsday for this event. Are you going to quote nothing burger incoming and then change your mind saying it's a legit threat? ? I'll do doomsday outlooks if you do that ?
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FWIW, I enjoy your posts. You can't please everyone.

That said, sometimes even with the best of setups that are model depicted, it can take the tiniest unexpected mesoscale developments to completely derail the severity of an event.

That's just how weather is.
 
Zander98al said:
I've always associated lighting as a indicator of surface based. But I don't think it really means it is lol. A few healthy cells popping up. I wonder if a tornado watch will be issued soon
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I usually look for high DCAPE, high 3km CAPE and Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates when determining whether an environment is favorable for surface-based storms.
 
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