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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

Henry2326 said:
12z Icon......stutters in place at the end of the run......


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Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
 
GaWx said:
Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
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I agree.....about the time I'm ready to ditch it, the model finds a subtle idea that the rest are not seeing......moments of brilliance
 
GaWx said:
Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
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I'd think there would be a couple of ensemble members at least hinting at that possibility and there just isnt much there. IMO we either see a wholesale change to the pattern and a full shift in track philosophy or this happens exactly as currently forecast.
 
@GaWx looking at the 18z gfs I think the only way we see any change to the track idea is if that trough is more east to west oriented so it stalls Teddy out. The the high would need to anchor as the trough weakened.

Just don't see that happening.
 
Shaggy said:
@GaWx looking at the 18z gfs I think the only way we see any change to the track idea is if that trough is more east to west oriented so it stalls Teddy out. The the high would need to anchor as the trough weakened.

Just don't see that happening.
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Does this get closer to what you have in mind?

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Shaggy said:
I'd think you want the high centered more off of the NE coast versus down over NC and the ridge axis to be east west and further east........that's just to stall itand keep it from following Paulette. Sort of like this.
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Same day, 9/23, GFS gets closer but doesn't anchor......
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Icon is coming in just a touch east of 18z. If that trough off the east coast can lift and weaken and leave 20 behind then that could get interesting but still just a loooooong shot
 
Gfs is a bit west of 18z. ICON was close to shutting the door as that big 1040 HP moved off the New England coast.
 
This is shaping up to be a very powerful hurricane in a few days

Best Track update has Teddy likely at 5am, 3 weeks ahead of 2005

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I'm just waking up after a 2 hour nap after my 13 hour shift lastnight. Checking the gefs does it seem more active west of Bermuda uda to anyone else or do I need to wake up better next time before checking models
 
Downeastnc said:
I mean if that big ridge is moving east a bit faster then maybe Teddy is gonna get further west than forecast...
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It's interesting to note that Teddy continues to move further westward on the models. It breaks the trough on the GFS.gfs_z500a_atl_fh186_trend.gif
 
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Ollie Williams said:
It's interesting to note that Teddy continues to move further westward on the models. It breaks the trough on the GFS.View attachment 48533
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What would really change the game is if this center relocation tonthe SW allows him to stay more WNW for a while before turning. Long shots and unlikely but this wasnt an insignificant move to the west.
 
Shaggy said:
What would really change the game is if this center relocation tonthe SW allows him to stay more WNW for a while before turning. Long shots and unlikely but this wasnt an insignificant move to the west.
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Teddy leaves something behind with High over northeast.....and its headed west.....

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For Teddy: This 12Z EPS, out to 240, gets a few members close to the NE US!

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Brent said:
Strong members too
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Later, most of those close members either hit, skim, or just miss the NE US.

I believe that the closer Teddy comes to the US, the lower the chance of homebrew off the SE coast next week.
 
The 12z ICON gets extremely close to the NE due to a trough, and a stronger ridge to the NE.icon_mslp_wind_neus_61.pngicon-all-exatl-z500_anom-0819200.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
The 12z ICON gets extremely close to the NE due to a trough, and a stronger ridge to the NE.View attachment 48652View attachment 48653
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Although the ICON is far from the best model (look at how bad it did with 94L in NC...it was the worst model for that), a NE US scare or even actual hit can’t at all be ruled out as even some EPS members have shown hits there.
 
GaWx said:
Although the ICON is far from the best model (look at how bad it did with 94L in NC...it was the worst model for that), a NE US hit can’t at all be ruled out as even some EPS members have shown hits there.
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But....it did rather well for Laura, when no other models were picking it up....this is what I've been worried about. The models are never precise in movement of the highs.....a little window can make a big dfference.
 
Henry2326 said:
But....it did rather well for Laura, when no other models were picking it up....
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I think the Icon overamplifies storms, therefore showing signals of development. For example, I remember it showing Isaias in the mid-960's. 94L into a tropical storm, laura developing etc.
 
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