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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton


ILMRoss said:
As stated above, classic RI look. I think it intensifies to high 920s/low 930s until it has an eyewall replacement cycle and plateaus a little before weakening.

The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
View attachment 152733
It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.

But yes it will put on a show before that.
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As quickly as it's organizing, an ERC becomes more likely. But they're a two-edged sword; the max winds are eviscerated while the wind field expands. Katrina lost her max punch on landfall but certainly delivered a knockout blow. Any large major hurricane crossing the gulf will deliver a severe punch on landfall.
 
HDGator said:
As quickly as it's organizing, an ERC becomes more likely. But they're a two-edged sword; the max winds are eviscerated while the wind field expands. Katrina lost her max punch on landfall but certainly delivered a knockout blow. Any large major hurricane crossing the gulf will deliver a severe punch on landfall.
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There will almost certainly be an EWRC and I bet it happens after taking in some dry air over the Yucatan like Helene did. The wind field will expand. However, I don't think Katrina is a great comp as Katrina's conditions upon landfall weren't as hostile. Katrina still had a landfall in the 920s- If we get lucky I don't think a sloppy 970+ Cat 2 is out of the question. Once dry air and shear intrude I think Milton's clothes will come off quickly, and the hurricane models show this. The question is- when does that happen, and are they too aggressive with the weakening?
 
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An even further north landfall along the Florida peninsula isn't out of the question IMO. The faster Milton moves, the more intense the storm is when near this position, the further north it would come. It'll be a race to the coast before the trough over Mississippi lifts and the storm is blasted by westerly shear.
1728277476701.png
 
0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed

0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning

0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night

0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon

Edit for Euro:

0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening

Edit: N to S:
GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET

-GFS remains quite a N outlier
-UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier
 
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rbtop-animated.gif
 
I just dont' know how much of that sharp movement I buy into once It starts to make the approach to FL...Either way, there are a few northernly models *landfall talking about* that are already struggling with the short term motion so let's see how that plays out today.
 
deltadog03 said:
I just dont' know how much of that sharp movement I buy into once It starts to make the approach to FL...Either way, there are a few northernly models *landfall talking about* that are already struggling with the short term motion so let's see how that plays out today.
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We are on run 3 of Hwfr with the turn. Agreed, if it continues today without flipping back and forth, I'll bet on it.
 
NHC gonna have a long day


...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
 
943.8 mb.
111600 2149N 09217W 6961 02697 9446 +188 +047 297016 030 026 002 00
111630 2151N 09216W 6962 02687 9438 +190 +049 122015 031 033 001 00
111700 2153N 09216W 6962 02713 9480 +169 +057 110044 049 039 000 03
111730 2154N 09217W 6965 02739 9542 +136 +069 083077 087 /// /// 03
111800 2154N 09220W 6954 02775 9591 +110 +076 056090 092 /// /// 03
 
Outside of the short term movement, the movement to the NE on a dime is what will be super interesting. Could be a Sarasota or Tampa landfall IMO.
 
Brent said:
😳

24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
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111400 2151N 09223W 6986 02740 9591 +122 +073 030052 082 134 045 00

Peak 10-second average surface wind speed occurring within the encoding interval from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), in kt.

1728302523939.png
 
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