Back to Taylor county?Woah hang on. Way north
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Nope.....dead on....brutalGFS coming in ~6 hours slower. Maybe a bit south? Hard to tell
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Back to Taylor county?
If that front coming in from the NW is a little slower, it probably would do just that.It's a running joke elsewhere that everything now hits Perry
Thats a good ~50+ miles north of 12z. Still a record surge event into Tampa/St. Pete no doubt, but it avoids the apocalypse 12z with the core passing directly over them.Nope.....dead on....brutal
We've got 4 more days, maybe 5 if it continues to slow down. It's gonna wobble 50 miles either way every forecast. My opinion it will have greater north wobbles than south. But who knows....Thats a good ~50+ miles north of 12z. Still a record surge event into Tampa/St. Pete no doubt, but it avoids the apocalypse 12z with the core passing directly over them.
If that front coming in from the NW is a little slower, it probably would do just that.
Yep, the reason NHC started the cone thing was for this very reason. The models just can't nail down landfall this far out. To many moving variables. In my opinion, if one does, it's sheer luck. So all we can do is look at the totality of the forecasts.4/5 days away is a scary feeling when it comes to shifts or wobbles
And prepare for anything and everything.Yep, the reason NHC started the cone thing was for this very reason. The models just can't nail down landfall this far out. To many moving variables. In my opinion, if one does, it's sheer luck. So all we can do is look at the totality of the forecasts.