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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

It will be a close call whether the southern eyewall remains intact at landfall. Modeling consistently depicts westerly shear finally punching dry air into the core in the final hours before landfall. Intense hurricanes always put up a fight against shear but none are immune. Even the mighty Katrina succumbed to a last-minute gulp of dry air bringing max winds down substantially but too late to reduce storm surge. I do worry that Milton may resist disruption a little longer due to the forward movement in tandem with the shear direction.
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Is that a Power Up mid Gulf?
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Henry2326 said:
Movement south.

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I think I see why the mean over FL is further south. The 12Z guidance’s initialization is at 22.5N, 94.9W, which makes sense since that’s where recon found the center. Compare that to the 5AM EDT NHC track’s latitude of 23.0N 5AM through 2PM. That means the storm in reality is a half a degree further S than the 5AM track.
If anything, this may be good news for Tampa though bad news for SW FL.
 
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Belle Lechat said:
410/06 5:00 AM23.0N94.9W50MPH1003mbE at 5 MPHTSMilton10/06 4:51 AMBeven
4A10/06 8:00 AM22.6N94.9W60MPH991mbE at 5 MPHTSMilton10/06 7:51 AMBlake
510/06 11:00 AM22.4N94.4W65MPH991mbEse at 6 MPHTSMilton10/06 10:57 AMBlake
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From new NHC discussion:

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.
 
Interestingly, the 12Z Icon is a bit further N and about the furthest N of any Icon yet with it close to Sarasota vs recent runs near Port Charlotte.
 
NHC discussion - shear may help it grow. Sound familiar??


The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area.
 
A bit confused with NHC timing. HWRF, HMON, and Hafs a have all slowed down in the last run to a Thursday landfall, 15z and 06z respectively. NHC has a Wednesday landfall.
 
Pretty concerned about my aunts here.

They live in the Sarasota - Bradenton area and one was telling my dad about how the water rising was freaking her out with Helene a couple days ago.

That one will probably need to leave and find refuge at least with my aunt and step uncle, although they're both in a bad spot because I'm not sure there's been enough time for the water to subside from Helene.
 
Hopefully, we can get lucky and these early more southerly trends near the north coast of the Yucatan continue and slows down intensification long enough for the storm to exit the otherwise extremely favorable conditions less intense than feared.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Pretty concerned about my aunts here.

They live in the Sarasota - Bradenton area and one was telling my dad about how the water rising was freaking her out with Helene a couple days ago.

That one will probably need to leave and find refuge at least with my aunt and step uncle, although they're both in a bad spot because I'm not sure there's been enough time for the water to subside from Helene.
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I have numerous family members in Bradenton and Tampa.....most of them will not leave during hurricanes.....they are "set" in their ways
 
Meanwhile, 12z CMC shifted slightly S to between Ft Myers and Naples vs its 0Z’s Ft Myers and yesterday’s 12Z’s Port Charlotte.
 
GaWx said:
Landfalls way up only a little SE of Cedar Key! Significantly N of last 2 runs.
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Looks like the Ga. coast is set to get tropical storm conditions once again. The storm will be transitioning extratropical with an expanded wind field as it comes off of the Fla. E coast. Yikes.

That trough over the lower Mississippi Valley almost goes negative tilt on this run. If that continues, an even further northward motion is not off of the table.
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GaWx said:
I think I see why the mean over FL is further south. The 12Z guidance’s initialization is at 22.5N, 94.9W, which makes sense since that’s where recon found the center. Compare that to the 5AM EDT NHC track’s latitude of 23.0N 5AM through 2PM. That means the storm in reality is a half a degree further S than the 5AM track.
If anything, this may be good news for Tampa though bad news for SW FL.
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It maybe a mix of both good and bad.
Further south landfall, offshore wind, but bad, that the northern eyewall or northern semicircle still rakes the region...especially given if shear eats away at the southern portion of Milton
 
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